JACKSON TWP — Seneca Valley Superintendent Tracy Vitale on Monday painted a bleak forecast for the school’s financial future by estimating the district could face an $8 million budget deficit by 2016.

While the school board and administrators are still working to close a $4.8 million budget deficit for the 2012-13 school year, Vitale warned that the board cannot afford to be shortsighted in its decision-making for future years.

In a document distributed to the board and to the public, the superintendent based her forecast on past trends and future estimates concerning state and federal funding as well as expected increases in operating costs.

Adding that the board and public must “prepare for the worst and hope for the best,” Vitale said the district could face a $2 million deficit for the 2013-14 school year, a $4.5 million deficit for the next year, $6.3 million for the next year and an $8.6 million deficit for the 2016-17 school year.

Those calculations assume no additional cuts to programs or teachers in the following years. Those numbers also factor in an assumed 2 percent tax levy and a 1 percent increase in the value of a mill each year.

Vitale added that her projections are not “meant to scare” the public but are rather realistic calculations based on trends in state funding and unavoidable increases in expenditures.

Those expenditures include mandatory raises for employees’ salaries and benefits as well as “unsustainable” increases in teachers’ pensions as mandated by state law.

In addition, the district’s costs for supplies and other operating costs are expected to steadily increase.

Furthermore, the district could lose out on more than $1.7 million in federal funds in January unless the federal government votes to maintain current funding levels.

Board member Jeanette Lahm agreed with Vitale that school districts everywhere are facing bleak financial realities in the coming years.

Lahm also warned that the school board might be forced to go to a voter referendum in an effort to raise property taxes above limits set by the state. The referendum would be necessary, she said, to “plead for the financial resources to run our district.”

Board member Eric DiTullio echoed that sentiment and said he would have no problem taking future tax increases to a voter referendum.

DiTullio said he feels that way because the board simply won’t be able to cut more programs and jobs to help balance future budgets, leaving no other options. The board has already “cut past the bone” in terms of eliminating jobs and programs, he said.

Board member James Welsh called the financial outlook “gut-wrenching” for Seneca Valley, but added he simply cannot support any future cuts to education. Instead, he said, the board might be forced to consider cutting extracurricular programs in an effort to help close budget deficits.

The board is expected to vote on a proposed 2012-13 budget at next week’s meeting, a budget that could include the elimination of more than a dozen teaching positions and the scaling back of other programs.