JERUSALEM - Yasser Arafat's latest health crisis - a severe flu, gallstones, a battery of cancer tests - has exposed how unprepared the Palestinians are for their leader's death, making a chaotic transition period all but inevitable.

Arafat, 75 and noticeably weakened after more than two years of confinement to a dank compound, still refuses to groom a successor; rival security chiefs are already battling each other in the streets.

No leader of Arafat's stature and popularity is waiting in the wings, said Palestinian legislator Hanan Ashrawi. "It's only natural to expect that there would be either a power struggle or there would be a loss of cohesion," she said.

Analysts said it could take years for a leader to emerge, hurting prospects for an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal.

Even with Arafat still alive, chaos has gripped much of the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Gunmen routinely commandeer government offices or hold employees hostage to demand jobs or housing. In recent months, security agents loyal to Gaza strongman Mohammed Dahlan, who has presidential ambitions, have clashed with supporters of another security chief, Arafat relative Moussa Arafat.

Without Arafat's unifying presence, simmering political rivalries would likely explode. In his Fatah movement, the old guard - Arafat contemporaries who returned with him from exile in the 1990s - is trying to keep out younger activists who remained in the West Bank and Gaza, fought Israel in two uprisings and now demand to be rewarded with political power.

Fatah also faces stiff competition from the militant Hamas group, which hopes to capitalize on massive frustration with Arafat's corrupt government during local elections in December.

On paper, at least, a path of succession has been charted.

The parliament speaker would replace Arafat as Palestinian Authority president for 60 days, until elections are held.

However, current speaker Rauhi Fattouh is a bland backbencher uncertain to hold on during a turbulent transition period and timely elections appear unlikely.

Arafat's other post, as PLO chief, would be filled, at least temporarily, by his deputy in the organization, Mahmoud Abbas, a former prime minister who resigned last year after power struggles with Arafat.

Barry Rubin, an Israeli biographer of Arafat, predicts it would take several years before a real leader emerges. "As long as the battle goes on, no one can make decisions, especially moderate or compromise decisions," Rubin said. "This means the chances of a negotiated peace are close to zero."

Israel and the United States, however, hold out hope that a post-Arafat Middle East will be more conducive to peace because of what they say is Arafat's blind eye to terror and opposition to reform.

The autocratic Arafat has refused to anoint a successor, for fear an impatient protege would try to topple him. He has also alienated many of his peers.