The Pennsylvania Department of Corrections and Gov. Tom Wolf have announced plans to close two of 26 state prisons by the end of this fiscal year on June 30.

The final decision, expected two weeks from now, could mothball both state prisons operating on the perimeter of Butler County.

That sounds like a hard blow for our region. But maybe it wouldn’t be such a bad thing.

The short list of five candidates for closure includes the two correctional institutions nearest Butler. One in southern Mercer County and the other in Pittsburgh.

Both are minimum security prisons. Mercer has a capacity of 1,087 inmates. Pittsburgh can handle about 1,500, according to DOC data.

The other three prisons marked for possible closing are: Retreat in Luzerne County, medium security, 1,136 inmate capacity; Frackville, Schuylkill County, maximum security, 500 capacity; and Waymart, Wayne County, minimum security, 1,500 capacity.

Here are the stated factors behind the planned closings:

n Prison populations are in decline. The current inmate population is about 49,000, down from a peak 52,700 in 2012.

n The state could save between $89 million and $163 million a year. Wolf is working to address a budget gap nearing $600 million and could more than double in the fiscal year that begins July 1.

n State spending on corrections surged to $2.23 billion in the last fiscal year. It was $1.3 billion a decade ago, when the inmate population stood at about 47,000.

n An expanded maximum security prison is being built to replace SCI Graterford in Montgomery County. The $371 million construction will increase capacity by almost as much as Frackville, the maximum security prison on the closing list.

Taken altogether, it’s a confusing jigsaw puzzle, but here’s how the pieces might go together:

Anticipate the closing of Pittsburgh or Mercer, but not both.

Frackville, the only maximum security prison on the closing list, is likely the most expensive for the state to maintain. Its operations will be folded into the new prison being built alongside Graterford.

That leaves four candidates for one remaining closing.

Waynesville is not likely to close. In addition to being a newer facility, built in 1989, Waymart shares a campus with a mental hospital, offering dimensions in treatment that seem only to be coming into vogue. A state and governor truly driven by cost-saving innovation would seek to maximize such a versatile asset.

That leaves Mercer, Pittsburgh and Retreat — a two-in-three probability that we are about to lose a prison, along with about 800 jobs and the commercial activity generated by 1,000 to 1,500 inmates.

But the jobs and commerce on the outskirts of our region.

And it may be just a bit morbid to see the silver lining in another’s misfortune, but Butler County has its own stake in the prison business, with excess cell capacity available for housing state inmates for a fee.

What could be more desirable than dramatic reductions in prison population — particularly in the costly and often ineffective incarceration of drug addicts and other nonviolent offenders? The best objective is a productive, healthy, crime-free community.

Until that objective is within our grasp, we must continue to seek out reasonable and affordable remedies for crime that do not compromise our safety.