Entering this weekend’s series with Cincinnati, the Pirates sported the second best won-loss record in the major leagues.

Two negative thoughts continue to surround the team, however.

One is the prospect of a third straight late-season collapse.

On that, we all just have to wait and see.

The other is the failure of Pedro Alvarez to develop into a bona fide superstar.

Many figured Alvarez was destined for stardom when the Pirates selected him as the No. 2 pick overall in the 2008 amateur draft.

This wasn’t a Daniel Moskos or Bryan Bullington type of selection. Alvarez was considered a top-three pick by every club that year and the Pirates chose him despite knowing they’d have to deal with agent Scott Boras during contract negotiations.

Once that was a done deal, the thinking was the Bucs had a guaranteed star in the making.

That’s where everyone was wrong.

There are no such guarantees in baseball.

Just look at history.

Professional baseball is the most unpredictable sport to project a player’s eventual success.

In 1986, the Pirates made Jeff King the No. 1 overall selection in the draft. Like Alvarez, the King selection was a no-brainer. He was considered one of the first two picks on everybody’s board.

King’s final major league statistics? 154 homers, 709 RBIs and a .256 batting average.

He didn’t make his major league debut until age 24. Alvarez made his at age 23.

King hit 30 homers in a season only once — in his eighth major league season. Alvarez hit 30 home runs last year, in his third big league campaign.

King hit .195 during his first season. Alvarez hit .256 — King’s career average — in his debut season.

The point is, let’s lighten up on this guy.

Brien Taylor, Paul Wilson, Matt Anderson, Matt Bush, Tim Beckham, Al Chambers, Shawn Abner — all No. 1 overall draft picks in the past 35 years.

Never heard of them? Exactly.

The baseball draft is an educated crapshoot.

Beckham was the guy drafted by Tampa Bay, in front of Alvarez five years ago. He is hitting .267 at Class AAA Durham right now and is only considered the 14th best prospect in the Rays’ system.

When the Pirates selected King first overall in 1986, teams chose eventual quality major leaguers Greg Swindell, Matt Williams, Kevin Brown, Gary Sheffield and Roberto Hernandez behind him.

Also chosen in that same first round were Brad Brink, Patrick Lennon, Derrick May, Derek Parks, Scott Hemond and Kevin Dean.

Some guys make it. Some guys wash out.

Travis Snider was picked No. 14 overall by Toronto in the 2006 draft. The Pirates made Brad Lincoln the fourth overall choice that same year. The two were traded for each other last season.

Snider is having a solid season. Lincoln is back in the minor leagues.

All of a sudden, Alvarez doesn’t seem so bad.

John Enrietto is sports editor of the Butler Eagle.