1st 3 months of '10 in U.S. look positive
May used to be known as a "Sell in May and Go Away" period.
It always seemed to most of us that the markets do well in the early part of the year and then here comes May and we had better look out. However, according to the Bespoke Investment Group, the Dow Jones industrial average has averaged a gain of 1.8 percent in May during the past 20 years with those gains 65 percent of the time. That is fairly significant.
Herein lies the problem. Is this May one of the 65 percent times or the other 35 percent? That's what makes this all so much fun; no one knows what is going to happen.
Many people continue to stay away from the stock market even though the Standard and Poor's 500 has been up 12 of the past 14 months and up 38 percent in the past 12 months.
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People ask me what I think about the Goldman Sachs affair.
First off, I have no clue what, if anything, happened that was illegal, unethical or criminal.
Over the years, Goldman has spawned incredible numbers of successful people on Wall Street. People want to have Goldman on their resumes.
Working at Goldman for many people was the epitome of success. Many would go there, get experience and then go on to be successful elsewhere.
When you are that powerful, there are going to be many envious people out there who are now giggling at Goldman's predicament. There's an old joke out there, politically and otherwise, that has a punch line of "You don't mess with the oil companies."
That could be the case with Goldman. They are very powerful. Having said that, they are a timely target in today's political environment to blame the rich guys for everything.
There is another joke about "Go ahead and take the easy shot." Goldman is an easy shot. Who knows, maybe they deserve it and maybe they don't.
If there is a settlement of sorts, we might never know for sure.
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Let's look at what has been going on. Any stats I'm using, unless otherwise indicated, are measured from Jan. 1 to April 30.
For the first four months of the year (can you believe the year is one-third over?), the Dow Jones industrial average is up 5.6 percent, the Standard and Poor's 500 is up 6.4 percent, and the Nasdaq Composite is up 8.5 percent.
The small companies are doing even better as the Russell 2000 index of smaller company stocks is up 14.6 percent and the S and P MidCap 400 index of mid-sized companies is up 13.3 percent. The Wilshire 5000 index of most companies traded is up about 10.1 percent.
Those are good numbers for the first four months of the year.
The Investor's Business Daily Index of 20 diversified Mutual Funds is up 8.99 percent through April.
The foreign markets have not been faring as well as ours after most of them had a rip roaring 2009. The EAFE index of foreign markets is down almost 2 percent. The Dow Jones Global Index, excluding the U.S., is down less than 1 percent.
Meanwhile, interest rates continue to be historically low.
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In the commodities area, gold and oil have been rising after having not had much movement early in the year. Gold is now up 7.75 percent year to date; oil is up 8.5 percent. Natural gas continues to be weak, down more than 29 percent so far.
The dollar has been stronger against most world currencies.
In the food arena, corn has been bouncing up and down, cattle has been rising for the year but has recently rested, coffee seems to have turned upward from the low, hogs are kind of following cattle and sugar continues lower.
You might find some answers to your investment questions on my website, www.howiepentony.com.
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My wife saw me putting a flask of Jack you-know-what in my fishing vest — trout season, you know?
Why did I need to take that, she wanted to know.
I told her once-upon-a-time (I thought you'd like that), I was fishing and not catching. I happened to see a small snake wiggling by with a little frog in his mouth. I grabbed him but he wouldn't release the frog. Maybe, I thought, if I drop a little Jack in his mouth, he would release the frog.
I did, and he did, so I tossed him in the bushes and continued fishing with the frog as bait. A few minutes later, I felt a tugging at my shoes. I looked down and there was the same snake back again, this time with two frogs.
She doesn't think I'm funny.
Howie Pentony is a Saxonburg client portfolio manager.
