The Labor Department reports that the nation lost 63,000 jobs last month, after losing 22,000 in January. Those numbers are the clearest sign yet that the nation might be in recession.

Put the emphasis on "might." When a recession gets rolling, job losses tend to be much worse. In the 2001 slump — which was mild by historical standards — monthly job losses hit 325,000, and stayed above 100,000 for nine months.

We're not at those levels yet and we may not get there, but the trend is scary.

The Federal Reserve has cut short-term interest rates by 2.25 percent since summer, and Chairman Ben Bernanke virtually has promised more cuts to come. The Fed also is pumping money into the banking system — $200 billion last Tuesday — to stop the financial arteries from further clogging up.

Meanwhile, unemployment remains under 5 percent and consumers still have healthy paychecks. And spending should get a very timely boost in May, when rebate checks start arriving as part of the stimulus plan passed by Congress.

The bad news scenario focuses on consumers, who power two thirds of the economy. Washington University economist Steven Fazzari notes that the average consumer now spends all he earns, up from only 88 percent a quarter century ago. He's deeper in debt than ever. His family is about spent out and can't take any more financial stress.

Consumer spending is "threatened by its evil twin — the explosion of household debt," he wrote along with co-author Barry Cynamon of the University of Chicago. Their worst-case scenario:

"The U.S. may have exhausted an unprecedented consumption-driven boom and may sit on the brink of the most severe downturn in economic activity since the early 1980s, and possibly since the Great Depression."

The views of Fazarri and Cynamon, we should hasten to say, are not widely shared.

We hope it stays that way.