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Market bucks trend, starts September rally

I have a little something for the thousands of female readers of my column. You know how you enter addresses on your computer browser when wanting to go to a particular website? Here is what you do. Quietly now!

Type in the www., then the names I am going to give you, and then end with .com. Ready? Gucci, Prada, Hermes, Burberry, Barneys, Tiffany, Neimanmarcus, Cartier, Ralphlauren. Don't tell anyone!

Barron's, the financial publication, had a story in its Sept. 20 edition titled "Luxury.com," which reported on luxury retailers and how they use the Internet.

The story contained that list and some other luxury sites. It is amazing how and what you can buy on the Internet. Miss "I Love Jewelry and Women's Products," who lives at my house, gets packages literally from all over the world.

Normally the sellers of luxury are a fairly sharp group, but apparently some of them missed the Internet explosion. It is interesting. Do you undercut your own stores or what?

———

Remember last month I told you September is historically the worst month of the year for the markets? August was a bad one, and it looked like the doldrums might continue.

Guess what happened? The rally started Sept. 1 and just went on.

The Standard and Poor's 500 Index, which I like because it tells us how the 500 big stocks are doing, was up 8.9 percent in September.

Year-to-date from Jan. 1, the Dow Jones industrial average is up 3.5 percent, The Standard & Poor's 500 Index is up 2.3 percent and the Nasdaq Composite is up 4.4 percent.

Not surprisingly, the small company index as represented by the Russell 2000 is up 8.1 percent, and the mid-sized company index as measured by the S&P Midcap 400 is up 10.4 percent. The Wilshire 5000, which measures most stocks traded, is up 5 percent year-to-date.

According to MFS Investment Management, over the past 20 years, the S&P has gained an average of 4.6 percent in the final three months of the year. This next quarter will be interesting to watch.

Again, according to MFS, since the bottom of the market — March 9, 2009 — through Sept. 30, the S&P has had a total return of 74.3 percent.

Have you been in or out?

In the commodities markets, I've noticed what seems to be at least a temporary leveling off prices in the corn, soybean, cattle, hog and coffee markets.

Sugar, gold, silver and copper continue to move higher. Gold is up about 30 percent for the year, crude oil is up almost 13 percent and natural gas is still off about 30 percent.

For some reason, this is supposed to be funny: With winter coming, perhaps natural gas will begin to rise in price.

OK, our leaders tell us there is, what, 2 percent or 3 percent inflation? They must shop at different stores than I do.

In the third quarter alone, sugar and wheat were up more than 45 percent. Oil was up 3 percent in the quarter. So, if you eat or drive a car, inflation is an issue.

———

I have to laugh.

I read in some financial magazine recently where a guru is recommending investors should put 5 percent to 10 percent of their portfolio in gold. Gold has tripled in the past few years to more than $1,300 an ounce. Where were they at $400?

Wall Street admittedly has plenty of holes in it, but I can't see working anywhere else, personally. I really like it.

One of the few things I don't like is something that seems to happen all the time. Some firm will come out with some product that exudes success because the firm back tested it, and had you done it 10 years ago, you would be worth zillions.

My gripe is if it's such a great idea now, where were they 10 years ago?

Next time someone shows you something like that, ask them that question.

———

My wife and I were at a party the other night, and one man we know kept calling his wife "Pumpkin," "Honey," "My Love," "Darling," "Sweetheart" ... you get the picture.

My wife said, "Isn't it wonderful that after all these years he still calls his wife all those pet names?"

I said, "Phooey, he forgot her real name 10 years ago."

She doesn't think I'm funny.

Howie Pentony is a Saxonburg client portfolio manager.

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