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Belief in science helps in pandemic

As coronavirus infection rates continue to spike around the country, states and cities are diverging in their response on how to contain the spread of COVID-19.

President Trump and many governors are insisting that public schools reopen for the fall, as is the case in Florida, while other states and regions are adopting a more cautious approach.

Los Angeles and San Diego, for instance, announced last week that their public schools would be online only this fall. On Friday, Calif. Gov. Gavin Newsom ordered that most school classrooms in the state stay closed. And he has rolled back the reopening of many businesses and closed indoor dining and social spaces, even as Georgia’s governor rescinded local mask orders.

Political leaders in California have largely had public support for their decisions. One reason may be that Californians have greater faith in scientists than do people elsewhere in the country.

New data from the American Enterprise Institute’s Survey on COVID-19 and American Life show that California residents hold science professionals in high regard. The survey asks how much confidence, if any, respondents have in various groups of people — local government, news media, college professors, federal government officials — being able to act in the best interests of the public.

Some 45 percent of Californians said they had a “great deal” of confidence in scientists to act in the best interests of the public, compared with 38 percent nationally and only 35 percent of Floridians surveyed. The inverse is true in the case of President Trump: Only 12 percent of Californians have great confidence in him acting in the public’s interest, compared with 20 percent of Floridians.

The data reveal that 68 percent of California residents think scientists make decisions and recommendations based on fact and systematic investigation. Other parts of the country think differently. Only 47 percent in Texas, 51 percent in Florida and 54 percent in the South (17 states, including those on the Gulf and Atlantic coasts, up to Maryland) believe the same. These are significant differences and may help explain the political reticence and delay among leaders in some of those states to impose tighter coronavirus restrictions.

No surprise, these sentiments toward science during the coronavirus crisis play out in attitudes about personal behavior in the pandemic. For instance, when asked whether one would be comfortable attending a worship service in person, 50 percent of Californians said they would be very uncomfortable doing this, compared with 39 percent of Floridians and 42 percent for the rest of the nation. Similarly, when asked about attending a sporting event, 60 percent of Californians said they would be very uncomfortable, compared with 43 percent of Floridians.

In terms of public policies, Californians are more apt to accept the evidence and advice that doctors and scientists have presented to the public. The survey also found that when asked to weigh the costs and benefits of shutting down businesses and social life, 65 percent of Californians supported shutdowns to keep the public safe. That number was appreciably lower in Florida and Texas — both at 54 percent.

It’s important to note that California is not overwhelmingly liberal. The survey shows that California leans slightly to the left; 37 percent of Californians say they are liberal, 33 percent say they are conservative, and the remaining 28 percent declare themselves as moderate. California leans a bit more left than the national average, which generally leans to the right.

As White House officials push to reopen the country and public schools, most Californians are rejecting that dangerous impulse — based on science.

Samuel J. Abrams is a professor of politics at Sarah Lawrence College and a visiting scholar at the American Enterprise Institute.

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