Hot and Cold
The winter outlook is frigid and white, or so says the Farmers' Almanac.
With conditions predicted as “colder-than-normal” with above-average snowfall, Pennsylvania could be in for a long, hard winter — one that might last through spring.
“Overall, we're calling this winter a 'polar-coaster,'” said Sandi Duncan, Farmers' Almanac managing editor.
According to Duncan, winter temperatures will be up and down for most of the region. In Western Pennsylvania, winter could be “white and wet” and hard to shake.
“It looks like it is going to take some time for the weather to get out of town,” Duncan said.
The almanac is published out of Maine and provides 16-month weather forecasts for North America by using a mathematical and astronomical formula that was developed in 1818. It claims 80 to 85 percent accuracy.
“We do not use folklore in our weather forecasting,” Duncan said. “But ... sometimes, it's amazingly accurate.”
The Old Farmer's Almanac
The Old Farmer's Almanac of New Hampshire has a slightly different forecast. Established in 1792, it uses solar science, climatology and meteorology. It claims 80 percent accuracy.
“Our meteorologist keeps (records),” said senior editor Sarah Perreault.
Perreault added 2018 forecasts were 80.5 percent accurate.
The Old Farmer's Almanac predicts above-normal temperatures for Western Pennsylvania, but heavier precipitation this coming winter. It says winter will be coldest from January to March, but snow will fall heaviest in November, January and March.
Perreault said the almanac publishes every August, but predictions are made about a year in advance.
“In the winter, we're looking at the next winter,” Perreault said.
According to Perreault, forecasts are made with scientific formulas similar to those used in 1792 and modern instruments.“To enhance our formula,” Perreault said.The almanac's meteorologist of 20 years does not use natural signs.“But we do recognize that nature knows what's coming,” Perreault said.Different predictionsThe differences in predictions could be due to zoning.The Farmers' Almanac groups Pennsylvania with New England, while the Old Farmer's Almanac ties Western Pennsylvania to Ohio, West Virginia, Virginia, Indiana, Illinois, Missouri and Kentucky.Perreault says there's a “friendly rivalry” between the Old Farmer's Almanac and the Farmers' Almanac. They operate separately and issue different predictions, but have the same goal.“Bottom line, we're thrilled that people are reading almanacs,” Perreault said.Duncan said the almanac offers more than weather predictions: It includes trivia, history and regional proverbs.“It's a little bit of nostalgia,” Duncan said. “People kind of hang on to it.”Problems crop upSpring was long and summer was wet in Western Pennsylvania. If winter follows suit, local crops will be affected.“We do feel for the farmers,” Duncan said.Evelyn Minteer, Butler County Farm Bureau's information director, is a cattle and poultry farmer who lives in Franklin Township.
“Crops were put in late,” Minteer said. “We get an early frost, that's really going to hurt.”“Killing frosts” occur when temperatures are low enough to kill exposed vegetation and fruit. Generally, this means temperatures stay below 28 degrees for several days.For some crops — such as corn and hay — a late or short planting season can be detrimental. Minteer owns 200 acres on which corn, soy and hay are grown.“A lot of people don't farm (hay),” Minteer said. “They buy their hay.”Jim Boldy, Butler County Farm Bureau vice president, rents 60 acres to a farmer who grows sweet corn and pumpkins. Sweet corn needs to be planted every few weeks in the summer to ensure an extended crop. A short planting season means sweet corn doesn't have time to mature.“You can't get a full (crop),” Boldy said.He said vegetable crops don't recuperate as quickly from harsh weather as fruits.“It's going to hurt the farmers,” Boldy said. “Just hope and pray we get a late frost.”Till the cows come homeMinteer's animals are also a concern.“If you get enough (feed), you can get through,” Minteer said. “It's going to hurt if we have a bad time.”As chairwoman of the Butler County Dairy Promotion Team, Cara Stephenson knows food is important for getting through hard winters.Her family owns 80 heads of cattle and milks 40 of them in Oakland Township.“The crops aren't going to be as plentiful,” Stephenson said. “The farmers do have to make sure they have ... food.”When weather is warm, cows are put out to pasture to graze as they please. But cold temperatures mean they have to stay in the barn and be fed. If winter comes earlier — or lasts longer — cows need more food.
“Dairy cows eat approximately 90 pounds of food a day,” Stephenson said.Keeping the barn warm isn't as big of a concern, as cows are natural space heaters. Their body temperature is 101.5 degrees, according to Stephenson.The problems caused by a hard winter are usually labor-related: Farmers must keep water pipes, silos and tractors from freezing. While the cows will grow thicker coats, farmers will need to pile them on to stay warm while working.“It's usually harder on the farmer than ... on the cow,” Stephenson said.
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