January’s drama in the stock markets, punctuated with several big single-day declines, has created much anxiety for people watching their 401(k) retirement plans. In Harrisburg, the prospect of greater market volatility or lower-than-average returns means the state pension crisis could go from bad to worse.

The shameful budget stalemate in Harrisburg has caused harm to school districts and a variety of agencies providing human services. Beyond failing to have a budget in place nearly seven months past the deadline, lawmakers and Gov. Tom Wolf have failed to address the looming pension crisis.

In December, a bill to address the pension crisis by moving new state employees and teachers into a 401(k)-style pension plan was defeated in the state House.

Earlier this month state Rep. John McGinnis, R-Altoona, warned that without real reforms the state’s two big pension systems — one for state workers and one for public school teachers — would run out of money in 10 to 15 years.

Over the past decade or more, governors and state lawmakers have mostly tinkered around the edges of pension reform. The legislation was called reform, but it mostly amounted to minor changes and pushed the day of reckoning off into future years — when the governor and state lawmakers would be out of office.

McGinnis points out the current shortfall between assets and promised future benefits is more than $120 billion. In a speech on the pension crisis in December, McGinnis argued that tough action needs to be taken soon for there to be any chance of salvaging the pension funds.

McGinnis outlined the problem, noting that retirees draw down about $10 billion a year — a troubling figure since the funds have gone from holding $25 in assets for every dollar owed to now holding just $7 in assets for every dollar owed.

Funding shortfalls by the state since the early 2000s have contributed to the pension crisis. The 2007-08 financial crisis resulted in a few years of losses and generally returns have not matched the assumed rates of return.

It’s worth remembering that state lawmakers voted themselves a 50 percent pension increase in 2001. Then, when labor representatives for state workers and teachers complained about being left out, lawmakers approved a 25 percent pension increase for those groups. These actions did not cause the state pension crisis, but they certainly have made it worse.

Without real reform, which probably means everybody taking some kind of a hit, McGinnis warns that the pension programs could turn into a pay-as-you-go system similar to the way Social Security operates. That could result in school districts paying retirees as much as they pay current teachers in the classroom. For those worried about funding education and putting money into the classroom in ways that helps students, that scenario should be frightening.

Any discussion of the state’s pension crisis is challenging because it’s complicated and is also tainted by politics and finger pointing. While the debate over the stalled state budget is important, the failure of lawmakers and the governor to pass real pension reform is probably more important to the long-term financial health of the state and Pennsylvania taxpayers.

McGinnis deserves credit for speaking out about the pension crisis and warning taxpayers about the consequences of further failures.

Taxpayers might not like the message, but Pennsylvania’s pension problem can’t be treated with half-measures any longer.