In the ongoing energy war, a decisive battle may be approaching.

On Monday, a top analyst said as many as one half of the U.S. Marcellus Shale oil producers could go bankrupt before the crude market reaches equilibrium.

Fadel Gheit, the senior oil and gas analyst at Oppenheimer & Co., predicted the “new normal oil price” could be 50 to 100 percent above current levels, now hovering around $30 a barrel. But the equilibrium he envisions could still be more than two years away, Gheit told CNBC’s “Power Lunch.”

Two years from now will be too late for many U.S. drillers, who must drill and break up shale rock to release oil and gas through a process called hydraulic fracturing. Fracking is significantly more expensive than extracting oil from conventional wells like the ones in Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries.

“Half of the current (U.S.) producers have no legitimate right to be in a business where the price forecast even in a recovery is going to be between, say, $50, $60. They need $70 oil to survive,” Gheit said.

Similar economic pressures apply to the natural gas producers working in Butler County and other areas of Pennsylvania.

U.S. drillers currently are spending more than they are making. One result is a slowdown in investments in oil and gas infrastructure, such as processing plants and pipelines.

But the cutbacks and belt-tightening are happening almost as dramatically in the OPEC oil fields.

CNN reported Tuesday, “After watching the price of crude oil collapse by more than 65 percent to a 12-year low, there are signs that OPEC may have had enough.”

There’s even talk of an emergency meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to consider production cuts designed to shrink a worldwide glut of oil and other energy resources, according to OPEC President Emmanuel Kachikwu of Nigeria.

When the U.S. shale drillers ramped up production a few years ago, Saudi Arabia — by far the largest OPEC producer — responded by increasing its own production, intending to pull down global crude prices to a point where Marcellus producers could not make a profit. Other OPEC members went along with Saudi Arabia.

Now, the Saudi kingdom is feeling financial pressure in other areas, particularly in its extensive welfare system that’s fueled by oil profits. Saudi Arabia — and perhaps other OPEC member nations as well — are producing oil profits, but not enough profits to maintain government spending at levels they’re used to.

Meanwhile, the once-red-hot Chinese economy has cooled and cut industrial production, a condition that puts additional pressure on bloated energy markets. Turmoil surrounding Syria’s civil war and the Islamic State have added to the region’s instability, as have the growing rift between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Measured strictly in economic terms, the Keystone and U.S. shale drillers just might win this battle with Saudi Arabia over energy prices.

In reality, however, nobody wins an economic war of attrition, particularly when half of the winning side’s combatants are projected to go bankrupt in the process.