Plunging oil, stock prices weigh on Pa. severance tax
We Pennsylvanians could be late in figuring out what’s happening in the global energy field — and a delayed response to rapidly changing conditions could be to our detriment.
Pennsylvania’s Marcellus gas wells are producing an average of nearly 12 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas — a newly developed energy source producing about 16 percent of the United State’s total natural gas consumption.
This much newfound energy, when added to existing supplies, has upset market balances — with supply outpacing demand, causing a drop in prices. It seems intuitive that falling energy prices would present opportunities for many businesses to expand production or distribution — and employment.
Government sees opportunity, too. Gov. Tom Wolf wants to impose a 5 percent severance tax on the value of gas at the wellhead plus a charge of 4.7 cents per thousand cubic feet of volume. The tax would raise about $1 billion per year that Wolf wants to devote to education funding.
However, the chief rival of Marcellus gas has other plans. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries — OPEC — and its chief member, Saudi Arabia, adopted an unexpected strategy.
It’s much less costly to pump Saudi crude — $10 to $25 per barrel, experts say — than it is to drill and frack for Marcellus gas or U.S. crude oil. With that in mind, OPEC has opted to flood the market with crude oil and allow global prices to plunge, knowing its crude would remain profitable even with global prices depressed.
OPEC adopted the strategy in November. Nine months later, the plan is showing signs of success. The price of crude oil has dropped steadily and now is at a nine-year low of less than $49 a barrel for brent crude (Saudi oil) and an astonishing $43.26 a barrel for West Texas Intermediate (American oil).
Only a month ago, crude oil was selling for close to $60 a barrel. In January it was more than $100 a barrel.
But at $43 a barrel, it costs more to get the oil out of the ground than it’s worth in Texas, North Dakota and Canada.
Likewise, the Marcellus industry is suffering from depressed prices. It’s doubly painful because Marcellus, still close to startup mode, has experienced a rapid evaporation of millions of dollars in investment capital needed for pipelines, processing plants and other machinery.
And on Tuesday, the Chinese government devalued its currency, a move that triggered the yuan’s biggest one-day drop in more than a decade. The devaluation follows an unexpected 8.3 percent decline in Chinese exports in July. The move signals a cooling of the world’s second-largest economy, which also means a decline in China’s demand for energy.
The devaluation of the yuan put stock markets in a tailspin. The Dow Jones industrial average was down 219 points, a 1.23 percent drop, about an hour before Tuesday’s closing bell.
Meanwhile, OPEC nations continue producing oil at near-record capacity. OPEC member Iran, fresh off its tentative nuclear arms agreement and anticipating a lifting of sanctions, is pushing to increase its crude oil exports to about 2.6 million barrels a day. Iran currently exports about 1.2 million barrels daily.
As rival energy markets, the natural gas and crude oil industries are inextricably linked. And the energy business nowadays is cut-throat competitive.
All of these factors are interconnected — and all should have a bearing on how Pennsylvania proceeds with its energy taxing policy.
Is it prudent to impose a new tax on Marcellus producers, or perhaps should the tax be lower?
Whatever the decision, there will be repercussions. Pennsylvania residents should be aware of them.
