So here we go, down the home stretch.

When the calendar turns into August, it’s time to take a serious look at the pennant race and the Pirates’ chances.

The Bucs entered this weekend’s series with the Los Angeles Dodgers 18 games above .500 with 54 games left to play. They are still within shouting distance of the NL Central-leading St. Louis Cardinals.

That’s all good.

But here’s what drives you nuts.

The Pirates are eight games below .500 against NL Central Division opponents. That includes a .500 record against the last-place Brewers and a 4-9 mark against the sub-.500 Cincinnati Reds. They are 5-7 against the Cubs, one of the teams chasing them in the wild-card race.

The Pirates are 26 games above .500 against teams outside of their own division.

Gerrit Cole is 14-2 with a 1.60 earned run average against everybody but the Reds this year. He is 0-3 with an ERA above 5.00 against Cincinnati.

For the Pirates to have any hope of catching St. Louis, winning the division and avoid playing Russian Roulette with that one-game wild card scenario, they have to do better against their own division opponents.

Plain and simple.

Because that’s who they’re going to be playing.

Beginning Sept. 1, 25 of the Pirates’ final 32 games are against NL Central foes. That includes a critical nine-game road trip — three each in Milwaukee, St. Louis and Cincinnati — before returning home to close out the regular schedule against the Cardinals and Reds.

The Bucs play the Cardinals nine more times this year. The next six are in St. Louis, including a three-game series coming up this week.

To seriously expect to win the division, the Pirates will likely have to win six of those games. That would knock three games off the St. Louis lead and the Pirates would have to pick up three games elsewhere along the schedule.

Whether the Bucs can win the division without a healthy A.J. Burnett and the defensive liability of Pedro Alvarez at first base remains to be seen — but it’s doubtful.

Alvarez is so poor as a first baseman that Clint Hurdle removes him from games as early as possible when he’s got the lead. And Burnett’s sparkling first half will undoubtedly be missed, considering Jeff Locke’s tendency to run out of gas late in the season and the inconsistency of Charlie Morton.

The Pirates are likely to wind up in the wild-card game for the third straight year. Ideally, they’ll compile enough wins to host that game again.

With Cole on the mound at home in a must-win scenario, you like their chances. But it is a must-win scenario. The Pirates began this weekend with the third-best record in baseball — and they might be one-and-done again. Hardly seems fair.

The next step in the Bucs’ transformation is finding a way to step past St. Louis.

That seems obvious.

John Enrietto is sports editor of the Butler Eagle