Today Tom Wolf begins his new job as Pennsylvania governor. By pretty much everyone’s estimate, it will be a rough ride.

Wolf comes into office with the state facing a nearly $2 billion budget deficit for 2015-16, partly due to some one-time revenue sources and accounting moves by outgoing Gov. Tom Corbett to produce a balanced budget last summer.

While the budget might the first and biggest crisis, Wolf faces a substantial list of challenges. As a candidate, he promised to increase funding for education and to impose an extraction tax on Marcellus Shale natural gas production. He promised government ethics reform, expanding voting rules to increase turnout and preservation of the state’s two big pension funds for public employees and school teachers, which are underfunded by about $47 billion.

Any new governor would be seen as facing tough challenges, given this “to do” list. Democrat Wolf’s job is complicated by two facts — he faces a state House of Representatives and state Senate controlled by Republicans; and, this is his first elected office. He served two years as secretary of revenue under former Gov. Ed Rendell, but he ran his campaign on his experience turning around and running his family’s miltimillion-dollar cabinet business.

Another challenge awaiting Wolf is negotiations with state employee unions. Contracts for tens of thousands of state workers expire at the end of June. As governor, Wolf will want to limit the financial damage that substantial pay increases for state workers would inflict on the shaky state budget. But as the Democratic nominee, and having received substantial political and financial support from public employees, Wolf might feel pressure suggesting a sweet contract deal for unions as payback for helping him win the election.

Despite near universal predictions of a tough first year for Wolf, some political analysts suggest there could be opportunities for some dealmaking on priorities for Democrats and Republicans.

Looking at history, G. Terry Madonna, professor of public affairs at Franklin & Marshall College, also points out that many politicians take on the toughest issues in their first or second year. The idea is that unpopular moves in the earlier years of an administration can still lead to re-election if enough time is allowed to pass to let the controversy cool — and for the hard decisions to start showing benefits.

Madonna and Michael Young wrote an opinion piece earlier this month about the timing of taking on tough issues: “What a politician does is often less important than when he or she does it. Experienced politicians usually pursue ambitious plans and take on political risks in the first year ... they take their lumps early.”

As a political newcomer, it seems Wolf will be even more dependent on a competent and experienced staff. Leading up to his inaguration, Wolf had filled most of his top-level positions.

Any new governor will be watched to see how he or she begins trying to shape an agenda and fulfill campaign promises. Because he’s a political novice, the attention on Wolf — and Republican leaders in the General Assembly — will be more intense than usual.

One the surface, it appears there would be little room for any accomplishment, given Wolf’s desire for spending in education and for a tax on Marcellus Shale gas. But some observers suggest that Republicans might go along with some tax increases if Wolf agrees to pension reform that reduces future costs, even if public employees don’t like the changes. The privatization of the state store system could be added to the mix as a way of bringing in more money for Wolf’s spending plans, even if it’s a one-time infusion, while also giving Republicans something they tried and failed to do under Republican governors Corbett and Ridge.

Wolf might be wondering what he’s gotten himself into, but the next year should at least be interesting. Maybe Wolf and Republicans will surprise everyone.