Don't use food to make fuel
I think gasoline prices are coming down, maybe 15 or 20 cents a gallon. Now don’t get all excited because it could be short lived.
Apparently our government is going to release some of the millions of barrels of oil we keep in reserve. That could help us short term but it obviously does nothing to help with a long-term solution.
You already know about ethanol being manufactured with the help of corn. I have always been against using food to make fuel. I would not be surprised to see some of the tax credits reduced for that purpose which may loosen up some corn for human being consumption.
It has been estimated that up to 40 percent of our corn goes to ethanol production. Ethanol supporters claim that their demand does not drive up the price of corn.
Let’s see what happens if those tax credits go away.
By the way, it is fairly easy to raise revenues without raising income taxes on you and me. What you have to do is take a look at some of the programs that are receiving “tax credits” and other juicy little items and take them away.
It certainly is possible that costs would be passed along to you and me, but I am willing to take that chance to see many of these sweet deals go away. How about you?
———
As I write this on June 28 we don’t even want to talk about June stock market performance. But the market is rallying and the month actually could be salvaged. We’ll have to wait and see.
Historically, July is a good month, at least over the past 100 years. According to my friends at Bespoke Investment Group, the Dow Jones industrial average has been up an average of 1.4 percent in July in the past.
So far the Dow Jones industrial average is up 4 percent for the year. The Standard and Poor’s 500 Index is up 1.8 percent, which is more than 50 percent less than the Dow.
The Russell 2000 index of smaller stocks is up 2.7 percent, and the S&P Midcap 400 index is up 4.7 percent. What this tells us so far is that the middle sized companies have outperformed the rest of the market.
So, what is really going on? The Wilshire 5000 index, which measures most stocks traded, is up 2.8 percent year-to-date so the broad market is just ok with nothing to really write home about.
It only takes about 120 Dow points to change the performance by 1 percent, so things can really move up and down dramatically.
I’m still impressed with the market’s performance, positive for the year, with all the negative news we get. The Investor’s Business Daily Mutual Fund Index is up 1.8 percent for the year so many of the managers in that index are finding difficulty.
———
Ah yes, commodities, one of the subjects in which many people have interest. The number one thing I hear everyone talking about is gasoline prices. It’s incredible. I hear the people on the street, in restaurants, everywhere common people talk, and it is all about gasoline prices.
According to USA Today, year-to-date gasoline is up 14.4 percent, not a small number. Again, I am measuring from Jan. 1 through June 27 when I talk about year-to-date.
Natural gas is down 3.4 percent, and crude oil is down .8 percent per barrel. That’s right; oil is actually down almost one percent for the year while gasoline costs are up 14 percent. These kinds of numbers do not make the man on the street happy.
“Why are gas costs up but oil is down?” It’s that old free market stuff. When there is demand, prices rise.
Looking at other commodities, cattle is up 3 percent, coffee is up 4 percent, corn is up 5 percent, hogs are up 18.1 percent, (now why didn’t I own a bunch of hogs?), soybeans are down 4.6 percent, and wheat is down 21 percent.
In harder assets, copper is down 8.7 percent, lumber is down 22 percent, silver is up 8.6 percent and gold is up 5.3 percent.
It is just a mixed bag everywhere isn’t it? If you eat red meat, drive a car, drink coffee and eat bacon you’re not happy.
At least I haven’t notice an increase in the cost of gin.
———
Maddog and I were doing some paperwork over the weekend. She likes to tear up old paper.
Anyway, the wife came bopping along and asked what we were doing. I told her we were practicing value investing in her brokerage account. She looked at me suspiciously and asked me what value investing was.
I told her that it was the art of buying low, and selling lower. Maddog was on the floor in hysterics but the wife didn’t think that was funny.
Howie Pentony is a Saxonburg client portfolio manager.
