Stocks climb through '10
How about the run in the stock markets to end the year?
In December alone the Standard and Poor’s 500 stock index was up 6.5 percent. For 2010, the S&P was up 15 percent. The Dow Jones industrial average was up about 14 percent.
When I quote these numbers, I am including dividends paid by the stocks in the index.
The Wilshire 5000 Index, an index of most stocks traded, was up 17 percent. How about this one? The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies was up 26 percent. The Mid-Caps were not too shabby either as they advanced around 25 percent.
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As I write this on Jan. 5, the Bull Market, which began on March 9, 2009, is 666 days in length.
Now, the low on the S&P 500 Index also was 666. Some call that the sign of the devil. Now how scary is this?
According to the Bespoke Group, since 1940 the average bull market has lasted more than 1,600 days, which is about 2½ times longer than the one we are in currently.
I just love this stuff. Insignificant information is my specialty.
Does this mean we necessarily have another 1,000 days to go? No it doesn’t. The only thing you can take out of this for sure is the 666 and the fact that the increase from that low to here is about 90 percent. Quite a little move.
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For 2010, making any money in the bond markets was difficult with junk and investment grade corporate bonds performing well but Treasuries and money market investments on the short side returned almost nothing.
If you have been a certificate of deposit, buying this has not been good.
Our government says there is little or no inflation. I’ll let you decide.
In 2010 here are the increases in prices in various commodities. Gold was up 29 percent, silver 83 percent, copper 33 percent, corn 51 percent, wheat 46 percent, soybeans 34 percent, coffee 76 percent, oil 15 percent and cotton 91 percent.
I suspect I may be paying more for my cotton shirts.
The Dow Jones Commodity Index was up almost 17 percent. I don’t know about you, but this looks like inflation to me.
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I was reading a story in the Eagle the other day by The Associated Press, “Baby Boomers’ Retirements in Jeopardy.” The story explained how many of us boomers are not financially prepared to retire either because we did not save enough or damage to our investments in this economic downturn were substantial.
The reality is that retiring at 62 or 65 years old may not be viable anymore for some. Maybe 70 is the number, or maybe never.
Fortunately, I work because I like what I do but my hobbies are expensive.
Many of the 60s generation just had fun and spent money without saving for the future.
According to the AP, starting in January 2010 more than 10,000 baby boomers a day will turn 65, a pattern that will continue for 19 years.
If you didn’t get that, read it again. That number is incredible: 10,000 a day.
This is what they are faced with. Let us assume that they have savings of $500,000 and both the husband and wife are 65 and they are going to collect social security. And let’s assume that for both of them the social security will total about $2,500 a month.
If you take a 4 percent withdrawal from those dollars saved, that is $1,666 a month. Add those together and you get a yearly income of $50,000 or a little over $4,100 a month pretax.
The problem is that they have been living on perhaps $125,000 per year. Dropping from $125,000 to $50,000 a year is quite a little slap in the face. There is no room for error here.
Your home had better be paid for and you don’t need a new car.
How about the horror story of the people who have saved little or nothing?
Here’s the problem. That nice little pension plan that companies used to fund has just about stopped. I have a friend who meets the above story except for the one little thing that he has a defined benefit pension payment of $2,200 a month plus everything above.
Then if you add that yearly pension stipend of $26,400 to the $50,000 his earning now become 50 percent higher and total $76,400, which is a whole lot different from $50,000.
Save your money kids, you do not want to go through this.
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My wife was in the kitchen cooking over the holidays. I refer to it as “Being in Uncharted Territory.” HEE HEE HEE.
Anyway she made some chili and wanted my opinion. After about three bites I must have looked at her strangely because she said, “It may be a little spicy.”
“A little spicy?” I said. “I think I just lost the sight in my left eye.”
She didn’t think that was funny so I just went back to my vat of eggnog.
Howie Pentony is a Saxonburg client portfolio manager
