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Looking for a little good news

Gosh, there is so much good news out there I hardly know where to begin. How about this one?

I read somewhere that there is over $3.7 trillion invested in money market funds as of the end of November. Let me write that number out for you. $3,700,000,000,000. I also read where perhaps another trillion has been pulled out of those funds and moved to places like banks and mattresses.

Why is this good news?

Well, think about it. Let us suppose that this stock market straightens itself out as I believe it will. Where is the money coming from to fuel the buying? Money market funds, of course. Now not all of that cash that I am pointing out above will go into the market but how about just two thirds? How about all the cash that foreigners are holding and could be invested here?

OK, so that is a little good news.

———

People ask me what I think about Obama. I don't think Mr. Obama will be changing anything major. I don't believe he will raise taxes anytime soon.

The coal industry is not going out of business anytime soon. He kept Bush administration Secretary of Defense Robert Gates on.

Do you actually think we are going to pull out of Iraq quickly? Mr. Obama is like any other politician. You say things that you need to say to get elected.

I didn't vote for him but it wouldn't be any different if McCain had won. You say things that you need to say to get elected.

It will be a long time, if ever, that the "change" that Mr. Obama talked about takes place. It may take years for this economy to play out. No one can mess around with a recovery and McCain would have faced the same obstacle.

———

The last piece of potential good news I have is that as I look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average today, it stands at about 8,581. If the Dow goes back to where it was a few months ago, at around 14,000, that is a potential gain of 65 percent. That's no small potatoes.

I've also decided that by the time everyone in America owns a hybrid automobile, gasoline will be 11 cents a gallon. Remember when I told you a couple of months back that it cost me $127 to fill up my SUV with gasoline?

Well, with some of those gasoline discounts from the grocery store it cost me $24 to fill up yesterday. Is this a great country or what?

I suppose we have to talk about the markets. This year through Nov. 30 measuring from year end 2007, the Standard and Poor's 500 index is down 42.2 percent, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 36.5 percent, and the NASDAQ Composite is down 45.3 percent. The Wilshire 5000 Index, which I like because it measures most stocks traded, is down 38.3 percent.

Here is an interesting stat: The Investor's Business Daily Mutual Fund Index, which is made up of historically fairly good money managers, is down just under 48 percent. Looking at the foreign markets, it is the same story with the EAFE Index off around 40 percent closely matching our markets.

Remember last month when I told you not to look at your statements? I told you that I would tell you when you should start looking again. I received several phone calls after that was published from both current clients and potential clients. They were fairly evenly split. "Howie, I didn't pay any attention to you and I opened my statement. I'm not going to do that again, please let me know when I should look again," and, "Howie, I didn't look at my statement and I feel good about it, please let me know when I should look again."

Those were funny calls. I was in a local retail establishment yesterday and the owner looked at me and said, "I sure am glad I am not in your business today," and I said, "Why? I have never seen stocks priced so cheaply." He looked at me like I had two heads.

On a personal note, I will not get to talk to you before next year so do a couple of things for me:

• Get your spirits up! This financial roadblock we are facing will pass.

• Enjoy your holidays with friends and family.

• Thanks for reading my scribblings and please enjoy good health, happiness and prosperity in the New Year.

Howie Pentony is a Butler Financial Advisor. UVEST Financial Services Member FINRA/NASD.

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