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Fed may take boldest steps in decade to ease impact

WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve is all but sure to take its most drastic steps Wednesday since the depths of the 2008 financial crisis to try to counter the growing damage to the U.S. economy and the financial markets caused by the novel coronavirus 2019.

With the virus’ spread causing a widespread shutdown of economic activity in the United States, the Fed faces a daunting task. Its tools — intended to ease borrowing rates, facilitate lending and boost confidence — aren’t ideally suited to offset a fear-driven halt in spending and traveling.

Still, analysts expect the Fed to try. Some economists say the policymakers, led by Chair Jerome Powell, could cut their already low benchmark interest rate by up to a full percentage point. Not since December 2008 has the central bank announced a rate cut that deep.

Doing so would return the Fed’s key short-term rate to a range near zero, where it stood for seven years during and after the Great Recession. The central bank may also accelerate its purchases of Treasury bonds to try to smooth trading in that market. Would-be sellers have run into trouble finding enough buyers for all the securities they want to unload.

The Fed is also expected to revive one or more of the extraordinary programs it unveiled during the 2008 financial crisis to ensure that credit continues to flow to banks and businesses.

All told, the Fed’s actions would amount to a recognition that the U.S. economy faces its most perilous juncture since the recession ended more than a decade ago.

“I think the Fed has to bring the big guns,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, senior U.S. rates strategist for TD Securities.

On Saturday, President Donald Trump reiterated his frequent demand that the Fed “get on board and do what they should do,” reflecting his argument that benchmark U.S. rates should be as low as they are in Europe and Japan, where they’re now negative. Negative rates are generally seen as a sign of economic distress, and there’s little evidence that they help stimulate growth. Fed officials have indicated that they’re unlikely to cut rates below zero.

With the virus depressing travel, spending, and corporate investment, economists increasingly expect the economy to shrink for at least one or two quarters. A six-month contraction would meet an informal definition of a recession.

On Thursday, economists at JPMorgan Chase projected that the economy will shrink in the first and second quarters of the year by 2 percent and 3 percent at an annual rate, respectively.

Two weeks ago, in a surprise move, the Fed sought to offset the pandemic’s drags on the economy by cutting its short-term rate by a half-percentage point — its first cut between policy meetings since the financial crisis. Its benchmark rate is now in a range of 1 percent to 1.25 percent. Some analysts have forecast that the Fed will reduce its rate by just one-half or three-quarters of a point on Wednesday, rather than by a full point.

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