Unemployment in Butler County was increasing for March even before many of the state's businesses were ordered closed by Gov. Tom Wolf.

The county's jobless rate increased nearly 1 percentage point, to 5.8 percent, by March 14, according to preliminary data released Tuesday by the state Department of Labor and Industry, indicating the economic impact of the coronavirus started before state-mandated business closures began.

That 5.8 percent number is the state's preliminary jobless figure for March. Pennsylvania tabulates unemployment based on the “key week” of the month, which is the pay period including the 12th of the month. For March, that was the week of March 8 to 14, days before Gov. Tom Wolf ordered the closure of “non-life-sustaining” businesses in the state.

Because the seasonally adjusted civilian labor force estimates had not been finalized, the 5.8 percent figure is non-seasonally adjusted, and the number is considered preliminary.

The jobless rate in the county had otherwise been steady during the previous two months, at 4.9 percent in both January and February.

But the rate does not reflect the full impact of the coronavirus pandemic, which caused a great number of businesses to temporarily — or even permanently — shutter their doors.

In March alone, according to the labor department, there were 9,500 initial unemployment compensation claims filed in the county. More than 4,600 initial claims were filed in the weeks ending April 4, April 11 and April 18, though the first week contains three days in March.

Because those claims — which reflect about 14 percent of the county's 101,000-person workforce — can be filed for partial unemployment, and some people without jobs do not file for unemployment, the claims don't fully reflect the jobless rate in the county.

A MoneyGeek forecast estimated peak coronavirus-related unemployment in the Pittsburgh Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes Butler County, to be 31 percent.

[naviga:h3]Hardest-hit jobs[/naviga:h3]

While the number of people who lost their jobs in the wake of government-mandated business closures is yet to be seen — local data for April will be released in June — the pandemic appears to have impacted blue-collar workers the hardest.

Jordan Grady, executive director of the Butler County Chamber of Commerce, said white-collar office workers were less likely to lose their jobs because they could transition to teleworking — an option blue-collar workers don't have.

“A lot of the organizations in Butler County did a great job adapting and having plans in place to have people that can work from home do so. On the office side of things, I think we're right there with some of the areas that surround us,” he said. “A lot of the blue-collar jobs were mandated to cease their operations until the restrictions were lifted.

“But construction's back,” he said, “so I do believe that the blue-collar will be the first industry to get back to the employment on May 8, when they start doing the regional reopenings.”

Susan Bowser, of PA CareerLink in Butler County, agreed that the first people who came to the CareerLink office after they lost their jobs were blue-collar workers.

“On March 16, that Monday (after the closure of public schools), we were slammed with all the bus drivers who came in,” she said.

Both Grady and Bowser declined to give even a rough estimate on how many Butler County residents are unemployed, though Bowser gave an idea of how it would look: “It's huge,” she said.

[naviga:h3]How temporary?[/naviga:h3]

The business closures that have inflated jobless numbers may also wreak havoc on longer-term business finances, meaning more people may be out of work longer than expected.

“Once companies are open, people can see if you can go back to work,” Bowser said. “Or, all of a sudden, you have to rethink what you're doing because your job's not there.”

Not all jobs will be in that kind of jeopardy, however. Grady said he expects a large number of people back on the job once construction work is allowed to resume Friday, and a vast majority of workers will return as regional reopening begins in the commonwealth.

“Obviously, this crisis put a lot of people out of work,” Grady said. “But, as these restrictions are loosened, those numbers are going to drastically decrease.”

For people whose jobs are delayed beyond businesses reopening, be it due to financial impacts of the mandated closure or a lower number of customers during the pandemic, a safety net is in place.

The additional $600 per week on top of state unemployment insurance is active until July 25, and workers on unemployment can receive 39 weeks of coverage. Forgivable small business loans have helped some employers retain their employees during the crisis, and may be enough to keep the businesses afloat during times of lowered income.

But the anxiety remains about when workers can return to work, even with Pennsylvania's color-coded regional plan for re-opening.

“A lot of it is temporary, but you don't know how long, how temporary,” Bowser said.