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No one talking about that gold standard

Have you noticed that we don’t talk about certain things anymore?

Remember when gold was the talk of the town? It was $400 to $1,900 an ounce. If you were smart, you got out.

Most gold bugs who I know never sell. They just know gold is going to a million.

As I write this on Wednesday, gold was $1,183 an ounce, down about 7.5 percent this year. Not much interesting about that, which is why nobody is talking.

Oil, now that’s another topic. Down about 10 percent this year. Everyone is screaming down, down, down, down.

I have no idea what is going to happen but crude seems to have stabilized, and right now, anyway, it seems to have found a home around $50 a barrel. Some think the next stop is $20. Who knows?

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I like to talk commodities. Hogs are down 25 percent, and coffee is down 20 percent so far this year.

Wheat, oats and OJ are down in the low teens. Corn and soybeans are down around 5 percent.

Some of these low prices should be hitting our shopping cart. This is a good thing unless you are a farmer.

Cattle is break even so at least my steaks are not rising. Beef is high enough as it is.

Again, don’t ask a cattle rancher what he thinks.

Sometime back I spent some time, about a week, with some cattle ranchers. They were gung-ho cattle. We’d go out to eat, and I would order chicken. They would be throwing stuff at me before the meal was over. Funny guys.

Anyway, food prices should be a little weaker and that would make grocery shoppers happy.

Interestingly, with all the cold weather in January and February, natural gas is actually down more than 8 percent since New Year’s Day.

See, these are all interesting.

The stock market has been the boring site. Up 100 or 200 points, then down 100 or 200 the next day. I’ve said before, I like the up volatility, it’s the down I don’t like.

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Looking at the bond market, I don’t know much about real estate but my favorite mortgage banker tells me she can loan money at about 3.65 percent to people with really good credit for 30 years.

Let’s say interest rates go up over the next couple of years and mortgage rates are 6.65 percent for the 30 year. Let’s say we borrow $200,000 to buy a house. At 3.65 percent the monthly payment is about $900 a month. At 6.65 percent the payment suddenly becomes $1,200 a month.

Boys and girls, if you are going to buy a house, you probably ought to do it.

———

Other than the big daily ups and downs of the stock market as I write this, it has been much ado about nothing. The Dow is basically even, and the Standard and Poor’s 500 is about the same.

We just can’t seem to establish and trend. I like trends. We just don’t have one now.

Small cap stocks, smaller companies, are up around 4 percent, and Mid Caps are up around 5 percent. Interesting I think.

If you lump all the stocks together, the Wilshire 5000, which is essentially all stocks traded, is up about 1.75 percent.

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Realizing that I don’t know any more than anyone else, people like to ask me what I think. What should they be doing?

I believe the same thing as Charlie Munger. Charlie says what you should do is keep $10 million in your checking account in case a good deal comes along.

Right now everyone thinks interest rates have to go up, and the stock market has to go down. Well, you know that everyone is rarely right.

I told a fearful investor the other day the world doesn’t end often. Make a plan, find a guide person who you trust and like, and move forward. It makes everything so much more fun.

Because it is the most enjoyable time of the year — figuring out how much you owe the IRS — you should do one thing. Ask your tax person about splitting your assets. Should your spouse own half of whatever you have?

It is an interesting question.

———

The wife swayed into the man cave as I am writing this. She noted today is April Fools day, which, in her mind, signifies some sort of correlation or seismic message about what I was doing. I told her that I didn’t think she was funny.

Howie Pentony is a Saxonburg client portfolio manager.

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