Hey, it’s baseball season.

Now we get to see what the Pirates will do for an encore.

Coming off a 94-win season, a wild-card playoff win before a raucous crowd at PNC Park and the end of 20 consecutive years of losing has brought cautious optimism to fans this spring.

And it is definitely cautious.

Some folks predict a step backward this season, citing the losses of A.J. Burnett, Marlon Byrd and Justin Morneau creating a suspect rotation and insufficient production in right field and at first base.

Others foresee improved production from young stars like Andrew McCutchen, Pedro Alvarez, Neil Walker, Starling Marte and Gerrit Cole pushing the team even farther than last year.

More than likely, there is a happy medium here.

The real secret to the Pirates’ success or failure in 2014 might be out in the bullpen. Can the Shark Tank approach the numbers it put up a year ago?

For much of 2013, Mark Melancon and Jason Grilli were almost unhittable. For the bulk of the season, they were the best closing tandem in the game.

Left-handers Justin Wilson and Tony Watson were extremely effective as well. Seemingly, no matter who followed the Pirate starter to the mound, he produced. That will be required this year even more than last. Whether he won or lost, Burnett was an innings eater. He worked deep into games on a regular basis.

Four-fifths of the Pirates starting rotation entering this season — Francisco Liriano, Wandy Rodriguez, Charlie Morton and Edison Volquez — have had arm, shoulder or elbow health issues within the past two years.

Even with Jeff Locke and Brandon Cumpton in reserve, that makes one a little nervous.

Assuming those four starters stay healthy and effective through most of this year — and that’s a big assumption — their ability to work deep into games with any kind of regularity probably won’t be there.

The bullpen will be called upon to work three or four innings of a game fairly often. Hopefully, they are up to task.

If the Pirates are contending down the stretch, Gaby Sanchez isn’t likely to be the regular first baseman and Travis Snider probably won’t be in right field.

Just sayin’.

Help is on the way from Class AAA, certainly, but it’s unfair to expect that help to impact the 2014 campaign the way Cole impacted 2013. The guess here is that the Pirates will win 84 to 88 games and contend for a wild-card playoff spot again. The St. Louis Cardinals are still the class of the NL Central Division.

Look for Cincinnati to slip a little, Milwaukee to gain a little, and for the Cubs to be the Cubs.

The Pirates are banking on their talented youth to keep moving the club up the standings. That’s not a bad strategy.

But for this year, that next step may be too hard to reach.

John Enrietto is sports editor of the Butler Eagle.