Global growth likely to slow
WASHINGTON — A recession in Europe and weaker growth in India, Brazil and other developing countries will likely slow global economic growth, the World Bank says.
In its twice-yearly report issued late Tuesday, the bank substantially cut its forecasts for growth in both developed and poorer nations. It now projects that the global economy will expand 2.5 percent this year and 3.1 percent in 2013. That’s down from a June forecast of 3.6 percent growth for both years.
The U.S. economy will also suffer from slower global growth, the report said, but not by as much as developing countries.
“The world is very different than it was six months ago,” said Andrew Burns, head of the bank’s global economics team and lead author of the report. “This is going to be a very difficult year.”
The report noted two major reasons for the projected global slowdown: Europe’s debt crisis has worsened. And several big developing countries have taken steps to prevent growth from overheating and fueling inflation.
Europe’s debt crisis has made investors nervous, so they are lending less to many emerging-market governments. That has pushed up interest rates in those countries.
International investors have also cut their investments in developing countries 45 percent in the second half of last year.
At the same time, India, Brazil, Russia, South Africa and Turkey are taking steps to rein in borrowing to cool their economies. That might be prudent for those nations, Burns said. But coming at the same time as Europe’s troubles, the moves “create a fairly dangerous dynamic where these two trends feed on themselves,” he said.
