Down 6% is norm for May
Investors just love months like May.
No matter where you looked, minus 6 percent was generally the number.
The Wilshire 5000, a measurement of most stocks traded, was down 6.22 percent. The S&P 500 was down 6.3 percent, the NASDAQ was down 7.2 percent, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 6.2 percent.
My wife asked me the other day if there was anything she should be doing. I said, “Yea, don’t look at your statement.”
Now having said all that, the Wilshire is still up over 2 percent year-to-date. The NASDAQ is up 8.5 percent, the Dow 1.4 percent, the S&P 500 is up 4.2 percent. SmallCaps are up about 3 percent, and MidCaps are up about 5 percent so we are all over the place.
As I write this, all these numbers are through the first five months of 2012 ending May 31.
———
The EAFE index of foreign markets is down about 5 percent, so those markets are a little cheaper than ours. Unemployment numbers and uncertainty not only about our economy but the economies across the pond may be to blame. Spain, Italy and Greece are among the suspects.
I’m getting a little tired of that but we just have to muddle our way through all of this as usual.
Many of the best markets are in the Asia/Pacific rim with China up 7.9 percent YTD, India up 4.9 percent, and Singapore up 4.8 percent. As you know, that area of the world has most of the people, so maybe there is some hope.
Markets getting slammed include Spain, down almost 29 percent, and Italy, down almost 15 percent.
Overall the DJ Global index excluding the U.S. is down 4 percent. Not a horror story but not good.
Commodity performance includes gold down 20 percent, so just barely down year to date. Crude oil is down about 12 percent, and natural gas is down almost 19 percent.
If you are a contrarian, I just put a new natural gas furnace in my home and got rid of the electric. With my luck, natural gas prices will probably never be this low again.
Cotton is less than half the cost of one year ago, soybeans are actually up over a year ago. Wheat is down about 35 percent from a year ago. Beef and chickens are up over a year ago, but hogs are down. No one can be squealing about that.
Coffee is down about 35 percent so no one should be losing sleep over that.
One interesting note is that over the past month the dollar has strengthened about 5 percent to its highest point in about 16 months. If you own the dollar, this is good.
No one wants to talk about bonds. It is the same old story, if you want a guaranteed return, how about the 10-year U.S. Treasury yielding 1.5 percent. Again buying a house: Good; investing in bonds: Not so good.
———
So what kind of brilliance can I offer? None. As always I tell everyone, your investments should reflect the risk you are willing to take.
If you only want 50 percent of your money in the stock market, then that’s what you should have. If 100 percent is OK with you, then OK.
You are in charge of your risk. I never tell anyone what they should do. I try to explain the risk and then let the investor make the decision. It’s the old “Howie Pentony, let’s sleep at night” scenario.
You are the one who needs to be comfortable, not me. If you are worried about what markets are going to do over the next days or weeks, then perhaps you should not be an investor at all.
Remembering that I don’t know any more than anyone else, it’s my view that stock prices will be higher in five years, and since I am a long term investor I am OK with that. What you think is the issue.
Hang in there, make sure your assets are where they should be. We are still positive for the year, and while the short term looks shaky, we will likely work our way through this.
———
I was sitting rather quietly the other day, which is something I don’t do well, when my wife asked what was wrong.
I just passed a significant birthday and I told her I was just thinking about that.
She said, “Relax, you are only about 9 in dog years.” I don’t think she’s funny.
Howie Pentony is a Saxonburg client portfolio manager.
