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1.2M jobs at stake

ACA repeal will have fallout

WASHINGTON — It may not crash the economy, but repealing key provisions of the Affordable Care Act would certainly create job losses in every state.

That’s the consensus of a growing body of studies that suggest the economic fallout from the health law’s partial demise would ripple through the entire economy, not just the health care sector.

Josh Bivens, director of Research at the Economic Policy Institute, estimates the proposed repeal would eliminate nearly 1.2 million jobs in 2019.

Most of the job cuts would result from two factors: the loss of federal spending for premium tax credits that help people pay for marketplace coverage, and the loss of spending for Medicaid services, particularly in 31 states and the District of Columbia, which expanded eligibility for the program.

Generally, job losses due to cuts in Medicaid spending would be greatest in those expansion states. In nonexpansion states, job losses from the ACA repeal stem more from the loss of federal premium tax credits.

Among working-age adults under age 65, some of the hardest-hit states would be Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, North Carolina, Washington and West Virginia.

“These are not job losses that would send us back into a recession,” Bivens said, but they could potentially cut the rate of job creation by 50 percent.

“I think that would have a material effect,” Bivens said. “I think people would notice that ... It just wouldn’t feel like a place where people were super confident they’d be hired quickly if they lost their jobs. So, not a recession, but a noticeable slowdown.”

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