What Russia’s low‑key Victory Day celebrations reveal about Putin and the war in Ukraine
A three-day ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine announced by U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday defused the tensions over a prospective Ukrainian attack on a Red Square parade on Moscow, but the deal appeared unlikely to set the stage for a comprehensive peace deal.
Even as unilateral ceasefires declared by Ukraine and Russia earlier this week failed to hold, with both parties blaming each other, Trump said Friday that the leaders of Russia and Ukraine have agreed to his request for a ceasefire running Saturday through Monday and an exchange of prisoners. Trump added that the break in fighting could be the “beginning of the end” of the war that has dragged into a fifth year.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy commented by saying that Ukraine’s consent to the U.S.-brokered agreement was driven by the prospect of freeing its prisoners. At the same time, he issued a decree mockingly allowing Russia to hold its Victory Day celebrations on Saturday, declaring Red Square temporarily off-limits for Ukrainian strikes.
“Red Square matters less to us than the lives of Ukrainian prisoners of war who can be brought home,” Zelenskyy wrote on Telegram.
Earlier, a unilateral ceasefire in Ukraine that Russia announced for Friday and Saturday quickly unraveled. Moscow and Kyiv blamed each other for the continued fighting, just as they did when Ukraine’s own unilateral ceasefire swiftly collapsed earlier in the week.
The accusations reflect the deep-seated lack of trust between the two sides more than four years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of its neighbor. That has thwarted U.S.-led diplomatic efforts to find a peace settlement.
Ukraine’s new drone and missile technology has helped it hit deep inside Russia frequently and accurately in recent months, especially major oil facilities.
Meanwhile, rumblings of unhappiness with some of the Kremlin’s wartime policies have put the spotlight on Putin, who is due to make a speech on Saturday to mark Victory Day. It commemorates victory over Nazi Germany 81 years ago in World War II and has in the past provided an opportunity for fanfare and national fervor as well as showcasing Russia's military might.
This year is different.
The Russian Defense Ministry claimed Friday that its forces in Ukraine “completely ceased combat operations and remained at their previously occupied lines and positions” from midnight, when Putin’s unilateral ceasefire came into force.
But it accused Ukrainian forces of continuing to strike Russian positions as well as civilian infrastructure in border areas of the Belgorod and Kursk regions.
Air defenses shot down 390 Ukrainian drones and six Neptune long-range guided missiles aimed at Russia after midnight, according to the ministry.
A Ukrainian drone strike hit the administrative building of the Southern Russia Air Navigation branch in Rostov-on-Don, forcing 13 airports in the south of the country to suspend operations, Russia’s Transport Ministry said. Flights resumed Friday afternoon, but officials said it would take up to three days to fully restore air travel in the area.
Speaking during a meeting of Russia's Security Council, Putin called the strike a “terrorist” attack and hailed traffic controllers for helping to avoid tragic consequences.
Zelenskyy had a different story. Russian forces continued attacking on the front line overnight, he said, while Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 56 Russian drones.
“All this clearly shows that there was not even a pretense of a ceasefire attempt from the Russian side,” Zelenskyy said.
Ukraine also claimed Friday more long-range strikes on Russian oil facilities. Zelenskyy said one hit the Yaroslavl region, more than 400 miles from the border, although he didn’t specify when the attack happened. Ukraine’s Security Service said a separate strike hit a major Russian oil refinery and pipeline pumping station in the Perm region, more than 900 miles away.
Putin, who has ruled Russia for more than 25 years, has used the USSR’s victory in World War II to rally support for him and the war in Ukraine, as well as to project Russia’s global clout.
That made it surprising that the traditional parade will take place without tanks, missiles and other military equipment, aside from war planes in a traditional flyover, for the first time in nearly two decades. Officials put the move down to the “current operational situation,” without elaborating.
Russia’s bigger and better-equipped army has been engaged in a slow, hard slog in Ukraine, while Ukraine’s long-range attacks deep inside Russia targeted Russian oil production as well as manufacturing plants and military depots, rattling the Kremlin.
Some Russians are disgruntled about internet censorship and government control over online activities, including the blocking of the popular messaging app Telegram.
All mobile internet access and text messaging services will be restricted in Moscow on Saturday, according to the Ministry of Digital Development, Communications and Mass Media. It said the drastic measures were to ensure public safety
“A military parade is intended as a demonstration of strength and bravery, but if it is held furtively … and with the internet jammed (to reduce the chances of a Ukrainian attack drone being able to navigate to the site), it demonstrates nothing but fear and weakness,” Alexander Baunov of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, a Berlin-based think tank, wrote in an analysis this week.
Russian officials have repeatedly warned that Moscow would take decisive action — including a potential mass strike on Kyiv — if Ukrainian attacks disrupt official events scheduled for Saturday.
Malaysia’s King Sultan Ibrahim Iskandar, Laos President Thongloun Sisoulith, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Belarus’ authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko were due in the Russian capital. Prime Minister Robert Fico of Slovakia, a European Union member, laid flowers at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier memorial just outside the Kremlin walls after arriving in Moscow on Friday. He was set to meet with Putin but will stay away from the Red Square parade.
Russia’s Foreign Ministry advised foreign embassies and international organizations located in Kyiv to evacuate their offices in case such a strike did take place, and the Defense Ministry urged civilians to evacuate, too.
