LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Jason Elliott had one of his best stands of burley tobacco growing until the rains started. Five days and seven inches of precipitation later, about a quarter of his crop was ruined, trimming thousands of dollars from his payday when he hauls his leaf to market in a few months.

Fields all over tobacco country have been soaked, and without a good stretch of dry weather in coming weeks, Elliott’s predicament could play out many times over. In Kentucky alone, the nation’s second-leading producer, the toll could hit as much as $100 million if the crop doesn’t rebound. More than half of top grower North Carolina’s crop is in jeopardy.