RAMADI, Iraq — Gen. George Casey, the commander of multinational forces in Iraq, has no doubt what would happen if U.S. forces precipitously pulled out of Iraq.

"The security situation would degenerate badly," he said Thursday during a whistle-stop tour of Iraq. "You'd see (Abu Musab al-Zarqawi) consolidate his position on the ground, you'd see a terrorist safe haven develop in Anbar, you'd see him fomenting sectarian strife, and it would be hugely unstable."

So with opinion polls showing that more Americans back home are turning against the war and pressure mounting in Congress for a swift withdrawal, Casey devoted Thanksgiving Day to visiting with the troops, flying around the country in his Black Hawk helicopter on a morale-boosting mission aimed at convincing soldiers in the field that the war is working.

Along the way, scudding low over the desert to avoid groundfire, he talked about his conviction that America's strategy for Iraq is on the right track. He also spoke about the uncertainties that lie ahead as the U.S. military enters what could be the final stage of the Iraq war next year — the transition of authority to Iraqi security forces and the drawdown of U.S. troops under the supervision of Iraq's first permanent, democratically elected government.

The first stop was Forward Operating Base Kalsu in the so-called Triangle of Death south of Baghdad. As soldiers gathered around him in their festively decorated mess hall, Casey cited the notoriously dangerous area as an example of the progress that is being made toward stabilizing Iraq.

"When you got here we were fighting like hell here," he said. "Now we're in a holding position, and you guys are one of the first to do it."

Brig. Gen. Augustus Collins, the base commander, showed Casey on a map the achievements his Mississippi National Guard 155th Brigade Combat Team has made since it arrived in February. Collins pointed out the areas in Karbala, Husseiniya and Najaf that have been handed over to the Iraqi army and the roads that have been secured, as well as the areas hugging the banks of the Euphrates River that still are hot spots of insurgent activity.

"We're still getting murders around here," Collins said, adding that the killings appear to be politically motivated and have been on the rise as the crucial Dec. 15 election for a permanent government approaches. "We found two bodies yesterday."

Back in his helicopter, Casey said he was worried about the rising incidence of sectarian killings. But he said he thought a full-blown civil war unlikely.

"What the Iraqis need is time. They need a few more years to work through their differences. Our presence here gives them that time. It's the gradual nature of this that will allow the process to stay on track and not degenerate."

That, he said, is why it is impossible to give a timeline for the withdrawal of U.S. troops or to say how many may be able to leave next year, though he predicted the drawdown could begin as early as January.

"We may see some reductions in the early part of the year. We need to see how the elections come out first," Casey said. Over the coming year, "you will see a withdrawal of coalition forces outside the urban areas. You'll definitely see a less visible coalition presence, but I think that's more likely midyear than early in the year."

"Most Iraqis want us to leave, but the opinion polls also show they only want us to leave when the security situation is under control."