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How work will change after the pandemic

Last spring, the COVID-19 pandemic caused perhaps the worst job losses since the Great Depression. The decrease in the labor force participation rate — from 63.3% to 61.3% — has been steeper than that seen in the Great Recession and is among the largest 12-month declines in the post-World War II era, according to the Pew Research Center and federal labor data.

But for all the pain, this terrifying year could augur potentially positive changes in the workplace. Pandemics change economies, a truth going back centuries. The post-COVID-19 period may well see a transformative, long-lasting effect on employers.

The shifting balance between employers and workers was evident before the pandemic, with wages for the first time in decades rising for lower-income laborers. While the unemployment rate is over 6% and the country had 8 million fewer positions in March than before the pandemic, there’s still a growing shortage of workers and 7.4 million unfilled jobs.

Some of this is because of demographic shifts caused by lower birthrates. Some conservatives blame the stimulus package and extended unemployment for workers for the current labor shortage. Others, such as former Obama chief economist Jason Furman, also blame wariness connected to the virus.

But whatever the causes, the tighter labor market gives workers more leverage with employers, allowing even lower-end service workers to demand signing bonuses, higher wages and more humane working conditions.

White-collar workers also face a new reality. Once dragooned into offices often far from affordable homes, they have adapted to new hybrid models, with remote work being done from home, dispersed offices and coffee shops.

Stanford economist Nicholas Bloom suggests 20% of work will be done from home even after the pandemic ends, up from 5% in 2019. Various studies also show that remote workers have been more productive: a result business executives welcome along with lower office space costs.

Some human resources managers fear large-scale resistance to attempts to force workers back into the office full time. When the CEO of the Washingtonian magazine suggested that those working at home would be “less valuable” and easier to “let go,” the workers went on daylong strike.

Overall, though, the post-pandemic economy could produce shifts helpful to workers. The resurgent economy may push up wages for workers with skills, not just for programmers, but cooks, machinists, truck drivers, electricians and carpenters.

The labor shortage also offers a chance to improve work structures, particularly for people of color, who by 2032 will constitute half the U.S. working class, and for the entire beleaguered middle class. After 2020’s pain and dislocation, we need to focus on ways to make employment conditions and the economy better for all Americans.

Joel Kotkin is the presidential fellow in urban futures at Chapman University and executive director of the Urban Reform Institute. He is the author of “The Coming of Neo-Feudalism.”

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