Pandemic's end as messy as the start
China has now delivered more than 1 billion vaccine doses, hitting that COVID-19 milestone the same weekend that Brazil passed one of its own: more than 500,000 deaths. Daily case numbers remain worryingly high, and those hospitalized and dying include larger numbers of young people. India, meanwhile, is at risk of a third wave of infections sooner than predicted, after a devastating second.
The end of the pandemic is almost here. But the tail is long and — thanks to short-sighted global and national policies — this phase is no more of a “great equalizer” than the start was. Blame uneven access to immunization made worse by vaccine nationalism as rich governments focus on domestic needs. Insufficient state capacity, poor logistics, and distrust and misinformation, often fueled by populist leaders, have left millions behind and widened existing gaps in the global economy.
Granted, the world has come far. Vanquishing COVID-19 is no longer a vague possibility; it’s visible in the distance. Researchers cracked the vaccine puzzle earlier than expected and shots have been distributed in record time, proving effective against even troublesome variants. As my Bloomberg News colleague Todd Gillespie reported this week, some epidemiologists are beginning to consider using hospitalizations, not case numbers, as the primary measure of virus risk.
Yet 18 months on, COVID-19 continues to devastate. The developing world doesn’t have enough shots, too many existing inequities have grown worse, and there’s excess bureaucracy.
The reality of the late stage of this pandemic is, first, that there’s no end to the cycle of surges and lockdowns without vaccinations. There must be a concerted push to get vaccines to the developing world soon — and not by backloading donations, as the Group of Seven nations appeared to do earlier this month. At-risk, jab-hesitant weak spots in the West will need to be tackled. And investment is critically needed in logistics and health care structures that can, in everyone’s interest, continue monitoring once the pandemic fades from headlines.
Then, even amid the excitement of reopening, there needs to be a recognition that at home and on a global scale, the pandemic has left the most vulnerable further behind. COVID-19 has accelerated some de-globalization trends, hampering the human mobility that so many states rely upon, and, with lengthy school closures, hurt human capital. It’s fueling a multi-speed global economy, Landfall’s Skilling says, and making it harder to close gaps.
After a pandemic that has touched all corners of the world and killed nearly 4 million people, investing in vaccinations, future generations and health care capacity to ensure we do better next time is a worthy memorial.
Clara Ferreira Marques is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering commodities and environmental, social and governance issues. Previously, she was an associate editor for Reuters Breakingviews, and editor and correspondent for Reuters in Singapore, India, the U.K., Italy and Russia.
