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Stocks keep rising

Question of the day: As I write this on the first day of March, what do you think has been the performance of the stock market — I use the Standard and Poor’s 500 stock index — since the October 2011 low until today?

Ready? It is up more than 24 percent.

As I remember, there were a few panic moments in October, investors thinking they should sell, and then the market reversed and went up 10 percent that month. There are still a lot of nonbelievers out there. Remember that past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Recent numbers indicate that there is about $8.5 trillion in banks and the like earning about 0 percent.

That is $8,500,000,000,000. It seems not much, if any, of that money has moved into the stock markets. Now we don’t know if it ever will.

The question for investors who have that money is, “How long can I keep it in the bank making 0 percent?”

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It has been a good, if not great year so far. After two months, the Dow Jones Industrial average is up 6.5 percent, the Standard and Poor’s 500 is up 9 percent, the Nasdaq Composite is up almost 14 percent, the Russell 2000 index of smaller companies is up 9.6 percent and the S&P Midcap 400 index of midsized companies is up 11.4 percent.

These are some great numbers.

Wilshire 5000 index of most stocks traded in the U.S. is up 9.5 percent.

The foreign markets have recovered from a weak 2011 and the Global Dow, not including the U.S., is up 12.8 percent. Those markets have not recovered what they lost last year but there is still some question about economic health in Europe.

The Asia/Pacific Rim is up double digits almost everywhere. Europe is ok, but only Sweden and Germany are up double digits with Germany up a whopping 16 percent.

Looking at our neighbors, Mexico is up 2 percent and Canada is up 5.8 percent. The U.K. is up 5.4 percent.

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Commodities are mixed. Crude oil is up more than 8 percent, natural gas is down 12 percent, Gold is up 9 percent.

As I look at the charts of things we eat, corn appears to be headed higher, soybeans have headed much higher in cost, hogs are just kinda hanging in there, coffee has dropped significantly and there doesn’t appear to be a clear trend, sugar is moving up rapidly again and cattle remains higher and steady.

None of this is really good news for you and I. I’ve said it before, long term food prices look higher to me.

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The bond markets are being kind to those of us borrowing and not so kind to those of us that depend on interest income from certificates of deposit or bonds.

The Fed indicates that rates may remain where they are for a while. They don’t want to do anything to slow this recovery and a policy of rising rates is normally not good for recoveries.

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Here’s what I’d be thinking about this month. The markets have moved higher. You may be getting well or at least feel that way. I would advise you to chat with your adviser, or chat with yourself and make sure your asset allocation is where you want it.

Findings indicate that most investors do not want more risk. Should your portfolio contain more risk? Are you too conservative? Should you have less risk?

You may have made some money in here so take advantage of it and take a look. Do you need a new adviser or investment manager? Changing financial people is very traumatic for most people.

“Oh I don’t want to go through transferring my account.”

Let me tell you something, if you have lost faith in your adviser, they don’t talk to you or give you regular updates, if you don’t know how you are doing, then a change could be in the cards.

People tell me that when they finally do it, it is like a weight being lifted from their shoulders.

———

My wife wasn’t funny last month, so we’ll go elsewhere.

Two senior ladies were driving on a little road trip. The lady on the passenger side was surprised when the car went right through a red light. Then it proceeded to run the next two red lights. Finally, she said, “Marilyn you have run three red lights and you are going to get us killed.”

Marilyn looked over and said, “Oh, you mean I’m driving?

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