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Tough, easy market

Once again I had the question the other day. "Ok, so what are you buying?" I answered "Canned goods and ammunition." They didn't think I was funny. I have used that answer before.

In my view this is a tough but easy market to buy. That made no sense whatsoever did it?

What I mean is that one must be selective. I'm not buying a lot of different things. Now remembering that I know no more than anyone else, this is what I think.

I am trying to buy companies that I think can grow their earnings no matter what the situation over the next five years. As you can imagine, that eliminates a lot of companies.

Now I can't tell you what they are because I don't know you and it might not be appropriate for your particular financial situation, but that is what I am doing.

———

It seems to me that eventually we will come out of this negative economic condition. You have to remember one thing, not everyone is hurting.

I am trying to get some work done at my home. The specialty contractors that I have talked with both told me they are backed up for two months. That is one of the reasons that I am suspect that our economy is so bad.

Is it bad in some areas? Of course. Are there people out of work? Of course.

This is the way I look at it. If the best we ever get to is 4 percent unemployment, which is historically accurate I think, and we are now at 10 percent plus, then we really are only 6 percent above the best we can be. That does not look bad to me.

We have historically had the strongest economy in the world. Let's wait and see what happens before we move to Mars.

———

As I write this on July 1 the Dow Jones industrial average is down 6.3 percent for the year from Jan. 1. For the second quarter, the Dow was off about 10 percent. The Standard and Poor's 500 is down 7.6 percent, and the Nasdaq Composite is down 7 percent for the year.

The Wilshire 5000, an index that measures most stocks traded, is down 4.55 percent. The reason it is not down as much as the major averages is that the Russell 2000 which measures small cap stocks is only down 2.5 percent. The S and P Mid-Cap 400 index is only down 2.1 percent.

What this all means is that the broad market is off about 4.5 percent for the year. Not good but not a horror story.

I still maintain the markets are doing surprisingly well if you look at the headlines. The news is basically all bad but we are hanging in there.

Commodities are continuing to baffle most people. Oil is down 4.7 percent for the year-to-date. Natural gas is down more than 17 percent; gold is up more than 13 percent. Corn has rallied a little in here, cattle is remaining in a slight uptrend, coffee has blown straight up, copper is trending a little higher, sugar is up just slightly, and hogs are a little higher in the last month.

For the year, the DJ-UBS Commodity Index is down almost 10 percent.

The bond market, fixed income, is just atrocious. Money markets are virtually paying nothing. Certificates of deposit, the same.

———

I read the other day somewhere that there is about $3 trillion in money market funds which came out of the market. The same story indicated that there was twice that much in banks. That's almost $10 trillion.

Most of that cash has one thing in common. It is earning nothing. Nada, zilch.

At some juncture that money, some of it anyway, will spread into the markets. I want to be just right in front of it. I just wish I knew when that would be.

I don't have a lot of cash so I must think it is coming. My clients hope I am right. That is one thing about managing client portfolios which contain their life savings. They are pretty much on your side.

———

Now we, some of us anyway, think that we have been in a bull market since March 2009. That would be roughly 15 months.

I haven't seen any etchings carved in stone that would indicate this run will continue. The only thing I hear is fear. I wrote about that last month. Nothing has changed.

Remember it is summer. It is not unusual to have summer doldrums. Things sound absolutely like they could almost not get any worse, but I never say that out loud.

———

My wife and I were having a somewhat heated discussion and she made some sort of reference about my manhood — after she had run out of legitimate arguments. And I told her that she needn't worry because there are plenty of attractive, younger, sexy women who are interested in men over 60.

She said "Yeah, you can find them. Just go to the bookstore in the mall and look under fiction."

She thinks she's funny.

Howie Pentony is a Saxonburg client portfolio manager.

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