Is COVID-19 relief larger than WWII budget?
President Joe Biden signed a $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief bill on Thursday that brings total federal spending to combat the pandemic over the last year to about $6 trillion.
Biden also plans to tee up a huge infrastructure outlay of about $4 trillion over the next 10 years on roads, bridges, tunnels, energy grids, strategic industries and other needs.
That’s a lot of money. And it’s raised the hackles of Biden’s critics. They’re concerned that those trillions amount to dangerous overreach; will saddle the government with gargantuan, unmanageable debt; and will eventually produce rampant inflation.
In inflation-adjusted dollars, the U.S. spent about $4.1 trillion waging World War II. It also spent more than $300 billion each on World War I and the Korean War, and $738 billion on the Vietnam War.
The bill for the wars the U.S. has waged in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere since the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, is $2.3 trillion and counting. All told, the U.S. has spent about $7.9 trillion on warfare since World War I.
Going to war requires being on a war footing, including a willingness from the federal government to flex its fiscal muscles in response to the pandemic’s economic and social devastation.
It’s also worth remembering that it was government spending on World War II that ultimately lifted the U.S. out of the Great Depression, not the well-meaning, necessary but often experimental and scattered New Deal initiatives that preceded it. Federal spending on defense represented about 40% of gross domestic product by 1945. By comparison, the $6 trillion Congress has committed to fighting COVID-19 represents less than 30% of current GDP.
The Federal Reserve more than tripled the size of its balance sheet after the 2008 financial crisis. And Congress has run huge annual deficits since then, yet inflation has remained stubbornly below the Fed’s 2% target.
Many inflationistas are haunted by the stagflation of the 1970s, which featured an unusual combination of high inflation and unemployment. Inflation climbed above 13% by 1980, exceeding anything before or since in modern times. Importantly, those were the days before big, bold Fed interventions and federal deficits.
While the money supply expanded in the 1970s, that expansion was not meaningfully higher than the one that came after the financial crisis, so the surge of inflation in the 1970s can’t be linked cleanly to spending. The more likely culprits were a pair of energy crises ignited by oil embargoes.
While the amount of money flying around has swelled more in the last year than in any other during the 1970s or since the financial crisis, there’s no indication that the $9 trillion Congress and the Fed have spent or committed is stoking a worrisome spike in inflation.
Timothy L. O’Brien is a senior columnist for Bloomberg Opinion. Nir Kaissar is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering the markets.
