The “blue wave” prognosticators saw coming broke a mile from shore as voters rendered a split decision. The numbers so far tell the story: Joe Biden won the presidency in a nail-biter, with thinner majorities for House Democrats and Senate Republicans.

Two GOP Senate seats in Georgia are likely up for grabs in a Jan. 5 runoff. Dead heats in both races probably make it coin toss territory. Republicans need to win just one; losing both would tip the Senate to the Democrats.

Even if Democrats win both races, a tied Senate doesn’t guarantee sweeping change. When President George W. Bush had a GOP House and a 50-50 Senate, he lost two Republicans on the pivotal budget vote to get his big 2001 tax cut through. But Bush made up for it with five Democrats, including two Georgians.

House Democrats had lost four seats as of Sunday, with as many as seven more uncalled races at risk. Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s 15-vote cushion could dwindle to single digits, limiting her ability to jam through partisan bills.

Voting patterns around the country have been striking. Biden may flip GOP-leaning states like Georgia and Arizona and make inroads in North Carolina and Texas, but he underperformed Hillary Clinton’s 2016 showing in Florida. President Donald Trump has narrowed his gap somewhat in heavily blue New York and Illinois, although more ballots remain to be counted.

GOP charges of “socialism” stuck. Iowa Republican Sen. Joni Ernst beat challenger Theresa Greenfield in a race that wasn’t as close as it was supposed to be. One independent voter told The Des Moines Register that “the far left scares the hell out of me,” and his vote for Ernst was based largely on keeping the Senate majority. “I mean, the socialist ideas — no. I don’t want the United States to become a really large Venezuela,” said Mike Gamm, 45.

Biden’s tax increases would only jack up federal revenue to Clinton administration levels. But that was the late 1990s, when the economy was booming and Congress had slashed capital gains taxes. Biden would raise the top capital gains rate by some 17 percentage points.

States like Illinois, New York and New Jersey have been hemorrhaging people and tax revenue to no-income tax Florida in recent years, according to IRS data. One Miami-area real estate broker told Business Insider last year she’d seen a flood of “tax refugees” from places like Manhattan, Silicon Valley and Chicago since the 2017 tax law capped state and local tax deductions at $10,000.

California, with the nation’s highest income tax rate, has seen a similar exodus to no-income tax Washington, Nevada and Texas. As of Sunday, House Democrats were trailing in two Orange County districts they flipped in 2018.

New York Democrat Tom Suozzi, from Long Island’s 3rd District, was also behind in the count late Sunday. The Ways and Means member has led efforts to repeal the “SALT” cap, which would give the biggest tax breaks to wealthier households. His district is the fifth-richest by median household income, according to census data.

Ultimately, the investment bankers, venture capitalists, real estate developers, private equity and hedge fund managers and tech moguls who bankrolled Democrats this cycle may see the best of both worlds. They’ll not only be rid of Trump, his trade wars and his itchy Twitter finger; they’ll also likely dodge huge tax increases.

Democrats’ union backers may also salvage some of their investments, including $23 million a United Brotherhood of Carpenters-backed group donated to fundraising committees affiliated with Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer.

The carpenters’ union and others in the building trades, who were some of the biggest Democratic donors this cycle, may yet see movement in divided government on an infrastructure package, clean energy tax credits and aid for their failing pension plans.

Compromise starts with a COVID-19 aid package in the lame-duck session. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is poised to take the reins from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin; Biden may do the same with a weakened Pelosi. McConnell made clear back in July that $1 trillion was his ceiling, and they’ll likely end up closer to that instead of the $2 trillion-plus Pelosi wants.

All the puzzle pieces are there for the taking: extended unemployment benefits; another round of $1,200 payments; funding for schools, vaccines and testing; more Paycheck Protection Program loans for small businesses. Tax writers have already been swapping paper on things like tax credits for employee retention and hiring, cleaning supplies and protective equipment.

If lawmakers don’t get the message to compromise this time, there’s always another election in two years. And that one may be even more unfriendly to incumbents.

Peter Cohn edits CQ Roll Call’s budget, tax and appropriations coverage.