U.S., world stocks doing OK through May
All right, here it is June. Let's take a look at what has happened so far this year in the world of securities markets.
Through May and measuring from Jan. 1, the Dow Jones industrial average is down 3.1 percent. The Dow only measures 30 stocks, so let's look elsewhere.
The Standard and Poor's 500 is actually up 1.8 percent. The Nasdaq Composite is up 12.5 percent. The Nasdaq has been on fire. The Russell 2000 index of small stocks is a little better than breaking even. The S and P Midcap index is up 6.9 percent.
One could say the mid-sized companies and the Nasdaq companies have been doing just fine.
Overall, there are a couple things to look at. The Wilshire 5000, which measures most stocks traded, is up about 4 percent. So, I guess we can say that through May stocks are doing OK.
I always like to look at how the money managers are doing versus the markets. Who is making money where?
According to Investor's Business Daily, growth mutual funds are leading the way. Value funds are lagging somewhat. Large Cap growth is up over 9 percent YTD, Mid Cap growth is up 10.88 percent, and Small Cap growth is up 6.3 percent.
So being very general in nature, we could say that the money managers who manage growth are trouncing the market in 2009.
Again, generally speaking, that was not the case in 2008.
From the lows in March 2009 the S&P 500 is up right at 38 percent year-to-date. If you sold in that time frame, you have missed a huge move in stocks.
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Now let's look at the foreign markets.
The Dow Jones World Index, not including the U.S., is up 12.4 percent. It appears that perhaps the foreign part of your portfolio might be outperforming the domestic side.
The emerging markets have been outperforming the developed countries.
All of this should not be surprising. The foreign markets were walloped in 2008. Many times those markets, the ones that did poorly, are the leaders when markets turn.
The countries doing the best include Brazil up 41 percent, Israel up 32 percent, China up 44 percent, India up 51 percent, Singapore up 32 percent and Taiwan up 50 percent.
If you own China and India, you have made some money this year.
Again, that all stands to reason because they did so poorly last year.
This is interesting. Guess what two markets are the only markets down this year? The UK and Switzerland. Switzerland is down 3 percent and the UK is down less than 1 percent.
As you can see, some of those markets have moved up more than 50 percent year to date. Remember when you and I thought that 50 percent was a big move?
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Many commodities have been moving up. This is not necessarily good for you and me, but it might be good for some businesses.
Gold is up about 10 percent year to date, natural gas is down 30 percent, and oil is up more than 45 percent but still down 47 percent from the high.
As far as current prices, corn is higher than it has been in four months, cattle is about as low as its been in four months.
Noticed beef prices at the grocery store? Hog prices have plummeted about 20 percent since late January, Coffee is roaring ahead up about 30 percent since March, and Soybeans are the same story.
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This has been an incredible past three or four months. I thought that it would be.
As I said last time, I like to go where I think the money is going to go and wait. Right now, it seems to me that long term — very long term — we are going to need more energy and more food to feed and fuel the masses.
That is because the world population is not falling.
For many people trying to buy something, today is difficult. Another portfolio manager I talked to recently asked me what I was buying for my clients. I told him "Canned goods and ammunition."
Many people are thinking like that now, which means it could be a good time to buy something. But fear makes it difficult to act.
For those of you with questions, you can e-mail me at Howie.Pentony@uvestfinancial.com. Or you can check me out at www.nextierwealth.com.
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I told my wife the RN, I call her Florence, that I thought I might be coming down with the swine flu, and so I was smearing myself with oinkment.
She, with disgust, asked me if I had any symptoms. I told her that I had an uncontrollable urge to roll in the mud and eat garbage. She said she couldn't understand the mud part.
I don't think she's funny.
Howie Pentony is a Butler financial adviser with UVEST Financial Services Member FINRA/SIPC.
