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Tariffs aimed at Mexico may hurt U.S. business

WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump’s surprise threat to impose escalating tariffs on Mexican imports jolted industry leaders throughout the U.S. economy Friday, sparked opposition even from usual Trump allies, and set the stage for American consumers to face higher prices. It also sent stock markets tumbling, with the Dow Jones industrial average closing down roughly 355 points, or 1.4%. Investors poured money instead into the safety of bonds, sending yields lower and signaling that they fear the economy will slow in the coming months.

Trump vowed Thursday to slap a 5% tariff on all Mexican imports on June 10, just over a week away, and raise those tariffs to 25% by October, unless Mexico stops the flow of Central American migrants into the U.S.

If the tariffs were to take effect, they could eventually raise prices for a new Chevrolet Blazer SUV, a burrito at Chipotle’s, grapes at the grocery store, or a new shirt. A 5% duty on the $346.5 billion of goods imported from Mexico translates into $17 billion in tariffs. Some of that higher cost might be paid, at least initially, by U.S. companies, but a significant portion is likely to be passed onto U.S. shoppers.

The U.S. economy has been integrating with Mexico’s since the implementation of NAFTA in 1995. All U.S.-made cars now include at least some parts from overseas, and 37% of those parts are from Mexico.

Shares of General Motors Co., which imports more vehicles into the U.S. than any other automaker, tumbled 4.4% by late afternoon.

Some industry representatives said the duties would not encourage companies to return production to the U.S., as Trump has said he wants, but actually have the opposite effect: It will discourage them from relocating to the U.S. because they’d have to pay more for imported parts.

Trump has already imposed 25% tariffs on $250 billion of goods from China. The additional duties on Mexican imports could weaken the U.S. economy. Growth was already forecast to slip to a roughly 1.5% annual pace in the April-June quarter, down from 3.1% in the first three months of the year.

Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, estimates that if the full 25% duties on Mexican goods were put in place, U.S. growth next year would be cut by 0.7 percentage point.

The U.S. imports $2.4 billion of clothing and textiles from Mexico. Stephen Lamar, executive vice president of American Apparel and Footwear Association, said companies are already thinking about how to cut costs but will likely have to raise prices because profit margins are thin.

Mexico is the eighth-largest supplier of clothing and seventh-largest supplier of footwear to the U.S. market. It’s the largest supplier of men’s and boy’s jeans, according to the American Apparel & Footwear Association. Garment factories in central and northern Mexico capitalize on cheap labor and the proximity to the border, according to a report by A.T. Kearney.

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