Paris agreement demands what W.Pa. is already doing
American participation will not make or break the Paris climate accord. Western Pennsylvania has made it a nonissue. When it comes to solving global climate change, Pennsylvania and the private sector are way ahead of the diplomatic game. That’s not just wishful thinking. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration proves it.
Nationwide, of the four end-use energy sectors (transportation, industrial, residential and commercial), only transportation saw increased emissions of carbon dioxide from 2014 to 2015, according to EIA data. That’s due at least in part to the Marcellus Shale gas revolution in Pennsylvania and improved gas collection techniques, widely referred to as fracking.
Natural gas is replacing coal. Between 1990 and 2015, total U.S. domestic energy production from coal decreased to about 30 percent from a high of 50 percent. Natural gas-based energy production increased by a corresponding margin, from 10 percent to 30 percent of total production. The trend will only accelerate in coming years — with or without global agreements.
As natural gas replaces coal, the air gets cleaner. The EPA’s measure of emissions of all major air pollutants has decreased nationally since 1970. Between 1980 and 2006, total emissions of the six principal air pollutants dropped by 49 percent, with lead emissions decreasing by 98 percent. During this same time, gross domestic product increased 121 percent, vehicle miles traveled increased 101 percent, energy consumption increased 29 percent, and the U.S. population grew by 32 percent, according to a report in Monday’s Washington Examiner.
For electricity generation, gas is infinitely cleaner than coal. It’s also cheaper to burn and transport, and there’s no fly ash to bury. These are concrete, free-market incentives. They reflect measurable improvements in environmental policy.
By contrast, the Paris agreement relies on each participating nation to calculate and pledge its own target, with no consequence for a missed goal. Some have pledged to do what the United States already has done, without explaining yet how they’ll do it. For example:
n Germany, a leading supporter of the Paris accord, recently decided to cease nuclear power production. Germany relies heavily on lignite “brown” coal, deriving 27 percent of its electricity from this low-grade, high-emission fuel. It’s the resource Germany has on hand. Adherence to the Paris agreement won’t change Germany’s dependence on brown coal any time soon.
n China pledges that its carbon dioxide output will peak at about 10 billion metric tons per year “around 2030.” While that’s virtually equal to current output — and more than double the U.S. output — backers of the Paris agreement hail China’s commitment to keep a lid on greenhouse gas production more than a decade from now. To its credit, China in January canceled plans to build another 103 coal-fired power plants before 2030. Some observers say China’s notoriously bad air pollution leaves no choice but to shutter coal plants for good.
Nonetheless, Trump’s critics condemn the U.S. pullout as a slight against Mother Earth.
Maybe the political narrative isn’t environmental. We have posited several times about the energy paradigm sparked by Pennsylvania’s burgeoning natural gas industry. For more than a year, Saudi Arabia tried to kill the Marcellus revolution. It flooded global energy markets with crude oil and pushed prices below a profitability level for Marcellus, knowing it’s cheaper to harvest Saudi oil than Marcellus gas. But the effort failed, leaving Saudi and its OPEC brethren broken and humbled.
This is the only context under which Trump and his secretary of state, former ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson, would choose the desert kingdom for their first state visit. Their message was clear: The United States expects Saudi Arabia to lead the resistance against Islamic extremism.
Two weeks later, the command has borne an unprecedented result: Saudi Arabia, Egypt and three other Arab nations broke diplomatic ties Monday with Qatar, an oil-rich monarchy known to have financed Islamic terrorism. The new rift creates other problems for Trump, who wants to clamp down on regional aggression by Qatar’s ally, Iran. The issue is especially sensitive because Qatar hosts the Al Udeid Air Base, a joint U.S.-British base, which acts as the hub for all American and British air operations in the Persian Gulf.
The next development is anybody’s guess. There is no shortage of perils and pitfalls in the region.
This much is certain: From the Paris accord to the Mideast power struggle, Western Pennsylvania and its Marcellus Shale boom continues to play a key role in global affairs.
