Hurricane center says tropical depression likely over Bahamas while still tracking Humberto, Gabrielle
ORLANDO, Fla. — The National Hurricane Center on Thursday continued to track a tropical wave over the Caribbean that could develop into the season’s next tropical depression or storm and threaten the Bahamas while newly formed Tropical Storm Humberto and Hurricane Gabrielle spun in the Atlantic.
As of the the NHC’s 8 a.m. tropical outlook, the tropical wave dubbed Invest 94L was stretched over the central Caribbean southwestern Atlantic dumping widespread showers and thunderstorms over the Dominican Republic and Turks and Caicos islands.
“An area of low pressure is expected to form along the wave tonight or early Friday when it moves near the southeast Bahamas. This low is expected to become a tropical depression when it is in the vicinity of the central and northwest Bahamas in a couple of days,” forecasters said.
It was forecast to move west-northwestward around 10 to 15 mph with heavy rains and gusty winds affecting Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through Thursday.
The NHC said interests in the southeastern United States should monitor the progress, and that effects will be felt regardless of development across Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas.
It gave the system a 70% chance to develop in the next two days and 90% in the next seven.
If it were to spin up into what would be the season’s ninth tropical cyclone, it could form into Tropical Storm Imelda.
The National Weather Service in Melbourne said hazardous beach and boating conditions are becoming more likely next week off the coast of Florida, but it’s too soon to say if the state will have any rain or wind effects.
“Residents and visitors should take the opportunity to ensure their emergency plan is ready, and continue to monitor the forecast for updates,” the NWS stated.
The busy tropics of late also saw the formation of the eighth named system on Wednesday when Tropical Storm Humberto developed in the Atlantic.
As of the NHC’s 5 a.m. advisory Thursday, the center of the storm was located about 480 miles east-northeast of the Caribbean’s northern Leeward Islands with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph moving northwest at 10 mph.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend out 105 miles from its center.
“A west-northwest to northwest motion is expected over the next several days with a slower forward speed,” forecasters said.
The system is forecast to grow into the season’s third hurricane by the weekend, but for now is no threat to land.
As for Hurricane Gabrielle, its forecast path has prompted a hurricane warning for the Azores.
As of the NHC’s 5 a.m. advisory, the storm still had 85 mph sustained winds, making it a Category 1 hurricane located about 665 miles west of the Azores headed east at 32 mph.
“A fast eastward to east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of days, followed by a slower eastward to east-southeastward motion this weekend,” forecasters said. “On the forecast track, the center of Gabrielle will approach the Azores today and move across the island chain tonight into early Friday.”
Hurricane-force winds extend out 60 miles while tropical-storm-force winds extend out 195 miles from its center.
The system is projected to bring dangerous storm surge and wind to the islands as well as 3-5 inches of rain.
The NHC also warned swells from the system will continue to slam into Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast from North Carolina northward, including Atlantic Canada, with potential life-threatening surf and rip conditions.
The climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season was on Sept. 10, but 60% of annual activity has historically happened after this date, the NHC stated.
The only other hurricane this season had been Hurricane Erin, which grew into a massive Category 5 system with 160 mph winds but remained in the Atlantic without making landfall.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in early August updated its season forecast to call for 13-18 named storms this year, of which five to nine would grow into hurricanes. Two to five of those would develop into major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
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