My ‘3 Rules’ is still in effect
This is a very difficult time to write a column on what is going on in the stock market. As soon as you read this, (I’m writing on Thursday), the numbers will be all wrong, and I’ll look like I have no clue. (By the way, I have no clue.)
As I write this, the Standard and Poor’s 500 stock index has rallied about 8%. Boys and girls, 8% would be a decent year. The bond market is headed to perhaps its worst year in history. There are just a ton of things that this market is doing.
As 2021 ended, everything looked expensive to me. I virtually could not find anything that I wanted to buy. Stock valuations were high.
Late in the first quarter it appeared that the markets were getting weak. I was getting mixed vibes from some pretty smart people. “The market is going down 30%,” or “Do not sell anything.” The differing of opinion was almost staggering.
Now, as I have told you before, over the last 120 years or so, if you owned the Dow Jones Industrial Average and did not sell, it was impossible to lose money. Key words. “Did not sell.”
In my view, that is the main reason people like me have jobs. Many of us hold hands. Our main function is to keep people positive and patient. Sometimes that is difficult. Other times, not so much.
The “Howie Pentony Three Rules” is still in effect: Work hard, save your money and invest.
I know a whole bunch of people who have done that. It does not happen by next Monday. I know a bunch of affluent people, 99% of them followed my rules. It just is not hard, but it may take most of your life.
I find that following my rules is actually fun. I had someone say to me, “Howie, how in the world did I end up with this much money?” I tell them that they followed my rules, they just did not know me at the beginning.
This has been an incredibly tough time during COVID and the related issues. Even I, “Mr. Optimist,” struggled a little. But, not one time did I lose the faith.
During the time when people were losing jobs, were struggling with paying the bills, it was not a happy place. I can tell you this. During that time, no one called me and needed money, or some sort of financial assistance. Why? BECAUSE THEY FOLLOWED MY RULES!
One big problem for many is that, for one reason or another, they had not saved any money. I get it, mostly. About half of the people filing income tax returns make less than $50,000 a year. Difficult to support your family, let alone save any money.
Some people do not want to admit that the top 1% of wage-earners pay 38% of all taxes paid. People who make the big bucks, over $221,000 pay half of all the taxes paid. Don’t let anyone tell you that the rich do not pay.
Here is the problem and I do not have the answer. (Hard to believe I know.) Those people that I was talking about above, those $50,000 people do not pay any taxes. We need to figure out how to get those people paid more. They need to be higher trained, educated and have a work ethic.
Many think that the work ethic is missing today. I don’t know. I do know that there are a lot of jobs out there.
It was relayed to me the other day that someone saw a sign in Texas for Taco Bell. The sign said, “Help wanted, no experience necessary, will train, $20 an hour.” For those of us who grew up making $1.35 that just seems unbelievable.
My personal view is that wages are going up. Some do not understand that minimum wage was never intended to be a wage to support a family. It was for college students or other part-time workers to supplement their income.
It was much like Social Security. Social Security was never intended to be a retirement fund. It was supposed to be a supplement in retirement. Never a retirement fund.
I asked my wife why she uses twice as many words when talking to me than I use when I’m talking to her. She says it’s because she has to repeat herself. I don’t think she’s funny.
Howie Pentony is a client portfolio manager in Portersville.