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How the U.S. got 2 financial crises for the price of 1

A major crisis may have been averted, but the short-term gain will lead to a much greater long-term cost.

Congress recently narrowly avoided another government shutdown after contentious back-and-forth between Democrats and Republicans. The potential shutdown would have affected key government services such as the certain health care programs, food stamps and national parks.

Measures assure they will have enough funding through Dec. 3, at which point another spending measure must be secured or a government shutdown will occur.

The United States usually spends more than it takes in and that tradition requires outside loans to make up the difference. Defaulting would waver the confidence of creditors and could usher in a series of steep political consequences, from future financial security to diplomacy with current and former allies.

The quick fix to avoid shutting down the government is not likely to impress U.S. creditors or offer much promise in addressing the arguably greater financial crisis in the debt ceiling limitations.

Understanding how it got to this point is easy. Debt accrues when debits outweigh credits. Necessarily expanding the role of government, especially in the last 19 months of COVID has only added to the costs, estimated by the Congressional Budget Office to be more than $2.4 trillion.

Yet identifying who is responsible becomes a far greater challenge. Some Democrats argue that both parties proposed policies that have led to this point while many Republicans have repeatedly said they will not pass a measure that will support policies they don’t back. These include some items in the more liberal social agenda negotiated within the Democratic Party.

Recent polling indicates Americans generally agree with Republicans and subscribe blame to Democrats — as the party has enjoyed unified power in both houses of Congress and the White House since the last election.

With the congressional midterm elections looming next year, it is a political hot potato that no single party or politician wants to hold. And after seeing how leaders struggled to address government shutdown, the debt ceiling proves to be a far greater political challenge.

To be sure, the government has shut down 10 times in the last four decades but the circumstances have never been more dire and simultaneously avoidable.

COVID cases and deaths are slowly starting to drop nationally but the pandemic and its ravaging effects are far from over. Though government at all levels has been involved in economic recovery and public health measures, the federal government has borne the bulk of that responsibility, primarily under the American Rescue Plan. That plan allocated $1 trillion in tax credits and programs, $350 billion to emergency management funding, and $10 billion in relief for homeowners. The price tag is hefty; the loss of lives is far greater.

Without congressional compromise to fund government agencies and avoid defaulting on credits by extending the national debt ceiling, the nation will face a substantial financial catastrophe. This would be the greatest challenge to the administration since President Biden took office in January.

Biden has been relatively quiet on this issue, seemingly leaving it up to Congress to work out the fight.

One of the challenges for Democrats is assuaging more liberal interests with more moderate pursuits and appeasing everyone in the party through the process. Biden initially ran against dozens of potential presidential candidates within his party with the promise of compromise, moderate policies and strong leadership. As the nation approaches the threat of the debt ceiling at the end of the month, Americans need compromise and strong leadership more than ever before.

Laura Merrifield Wilson is an associate professor of political science at the University of Indianapolis and a public voices fellow at The OpEd Project. She wrote this for The Fulcrum.

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