Can we save the climate through better bookkeeping?
Double-entry bookkeeping, invented in the 15th century by the mathematician Luca Bartolomeo de Pacioli, has been fundamental to economic growth ever since. Now, not just economic activity but the very future of the planet requires another revolution in bookkeeping.
The accounting standard needed today is one capable of measuring the amounts of greenhouse gases that are emitted and removed from the atmosphere, and the goal of reaching a “net zero” balance between the two. Although the Greenhouse Gas Protocol has provided an agreed-upon way to account for corporate carbon emissions, there is still no standard measure to assess where companies stand on the path to net zero.
As one example of the accounting issues involved, consider carbon offsets, which are verified credits equal to 1 ton of carbon dioxide, generated from projects such as protecting forests, planting trees or replacing charcoal stoves with solar ones. It’s been suggested that such offsets could account for a 10th of the effort needed to reach net-zero emissions.
But many questions remain unanswered. For example, how quickly would a protected forest have deteriorated without the offset project? Would a set of newly planted trees have been planted anyway, and once planted would they stay in the ground permanently? Will a family provided with a solar stove use it as its only stove, or alongside the old charcoal one? And so on.
One way to simplify things would be to buy carbon-emission permits from governmental cap-and-trade systems, and then lock them away so that carbon polluters cannot use them to emit a ton of carbon dioxide. This would ensure that the permits amount to averted emissions.
This is the approach adopted by Climate Vault, an effort associated with the University of Chicago. However, if this were the only kind of permissible carbon offset, many legitimate net reductions would be missed. A tree that might be planted solely to generate an offset, for instance, would go unplanted.
The Securities and Exchange Commission may also play an important role in setting emissions-disclosure requirements for corporations. It has already invited comments on how disclosure of carbon emissions and risks should be required from public companies. There would be substantial benefits to having a clear emissions-disclosure standard worldwide, so that multinational public corporate efforts could be better integrated into the global effort to hit net zero.
(One danger is that disclosure requirements for public companies might shift investments to privately owned companies not subject to the same rules. To the extent that happens, the effect on greenhouse gases will be undermined.)
De Pacioli’s invention promoted business activity and reduced, but clearly did not eliminate, unnecessary errors and outright fraud. And that’s basically what should be expected of new accounting standards for determining what it means for a company to reach net zero: fundamental effectiveness with imperfect adherence. Although it’s not yet clear exactly what net zero means, the stage is set for another pivotal accounting breakthrough.
Robert Hinkle is the CEO of Metrus Energy, which finances energy-efficiency and clean-energy projects Peter R. Orszag is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He is the chief executive officer of financial advisory at Lazard.
