Investing ups, downs in time of coronavirus
Hasn’t this been fun? Down 20 percent in the first quarter and up 20 percent in the second quarter. Not back to even but, wow. (If you go down 20 percent, you have to go up 25 percent to be even.) We were down, the S and P, 30 percent for the year at one time so this is a blessing, so to speak.
I don’t like it very much. It is difficult to invest with the market being controlled by the Morbid 19 virus. (I made up the name.)
Profitability, dividends, fundamentals don’t mean anything. The overnight 24-hour news channels pretty much have control on how the markets operate so until that changes, I am cautious.
From a portfolio manager’s standpoint, it is not good. I can invest hard earned money and the next day the market goes down 8 percent. Maddening. The investors that I know have their asset allocation in place and are sitting tight.
As I have often said, being an investor takes courage. It shouldn’t but it does.
If you bought the Dow Jones Industrial Average 120 years ago, and YOU DID NOT SELL, it has been impossible to lose money. The reason they make people like me is to make sure you own quality and you hang in there. In my opinion that is key.
There is an old saying, “With some stocks, some bonds, and some cash you can survive about anything.” Historically that has been true.
So why has the market been going up? Amazon, Google, Netflix, and Microsoft are four of the reasons. A few stocks have been leading the way and it has been enough to make the market look good.
There are a whole bunch of stocks down more than 40 percent. Many oils for instance. Crude oil is down about 37 percent for the year.
Banks are down generally. How would you like to be in the banking industry now? How do you know how much a home is worth in this virus time? How do you loan money? A whole bunch of people have been out of work. How do you loan money for new cars and trucks?
On the other hand, many railroad stocks have been doing well. Some restaurants are just fine. Fast food has become “Takeout.” I was by a fast food place the other day and there were 15 vehicles in line. Even restaurants not normally doing takeout have been forced to do takeout.
Boys and girls, the world has changed. It changed on 9/11, it changed 10 years ago, and it has and is changing now.
One good thing is that I think we are going to be a cleaner world now. Cleaner restaurants, public places, cleaner everywhere. That has to be a good thing. Many of those places needed cleaning and changing the way they cleaned. Good.
Money is going away. I have not been to a bank for cash for a long time. Credit cards are here to stay. I just charge everything and pay it off monthly. Money is not necessarily a healthy medium.
I read a Doctor’s advice the other day. “Wear your mask; the virus is airborne. Wash your hands and don’t wear gloves. Antibacterial soap is not necessary; the virus is not a bacteria. Live your life; this may be around for a while.”
Generally, business is fairly good. I talked to a client the other day — heating and air conditioning guy — and he said he is booked through August. A lot of small businesses are not going to survive the virus. A lot are. Those people who were operating just on the edge financially are probably through.
I hope I am not boring you. It seems to me that all of this “stuff” will affect investing. The secret is to figure out exactly where that is.
The BIG GUY has figured it out. You know who I am talking about. The stock has been straight up. People used it before the pandemic but holy cow it is easy to just order what you need. The big box stores are joining in with curbside service and actual delivery.
This is an interesting time; as an investor, it is going to be fun to see what happens.
My friend Louie got in trouble the other day. He told me that he and his wife were having a discussion on what they would do if they won the lottery. His wife said she would get someone who would respond when she said “Make me a sandwich.” Louie said, “Not me; I already have one of those.” She didn’t think he was funny.
Howie Pentony is a Portersville client portfolio manager.
