COVID-2019 will likely come to Butler County, according to medical experts.

“People here are probably going to get sick. We'll probably have some fatalities from this,” said Dr. John Love, an infectious disease specialist at Butler Health System.

Love said he doesn't say that to scare anyone. He's just being realistic.

He said it also may not be as bad as some are expecting.

“Is this an extinction event? No,” Love said. “Should people be rushing out and paying $100 for a small thing of Purell? I would prefer not.”

Gov. Tom Wolf announced Friday the first two presumed positive cases of 2019 Novel Coronavirus, which is dubbed COVID-19, in the state.

“We anticipated this very scenario and have been preparing for Pennsylvanians to become impacted by this virus,” Wolf said in his statement.

Love said like many hospitals across the state and country, BHS has been preparing its plans for community-based care dealing with the virus.

“The message is, 'I know you're scared. I know some of us are going to get sick,'” Love said. “We're here. We're going to take care of you, and we've been planning for this since the middle of January.”

According to multiple reports, the virus first appeared in China in December. The first confirmed case in the United States came Jan. 21 in the state of Washington.

Love said for weeks BHS staff have been asking patients who come in for care if they have been traveling. He said the list of indicative travel destinations has grown.

“The question has been expanded to include China, Iran, South Korea, Italy and Japan,” Love said.

He said BHS staff has also been working on protocols for when they encounter patients with the potential of having the virus — with and without symptoms.

The first step is a mask.

Those with symptoms need to be isolated right away. Medical professionals will wear respirators and other gear, so they can safely evaluate the patient.

“We've been using this time so that when we start seeing patients like this the staff has the equipment and training to handle this safely,” Love said.

And that case is coming, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. “It's likely that at some point, widespread transmission of COVID-19 in the United States will occur,” said one article on the CDC website.

With its first cases, Pennsylvania became one of 22 states with reported or confirmed cases of the virus.

More testing sites

Love said one area that still needs development is testing.

Originally the CDC handled testing, but over the past week, more labs have started testing, but not enough for everyone. He said some people who present milder symptoms may go untested.

“It's the nature of the beast currently,” Love said. “We as clinicians have to recognize that right now our testing is focused on the tip of the iceberg, but there's a population floating around out there that isn't going to meet that.”

While COVID-19 cases will likely be inevitable, Love believes cases will trickle in at the start.

“This is not like a train accident or a fire or something like that where there is no warning,” he said. “We're not going to go from zero cases to 100 cases overnight. There's going to be a first case.”

Love said the spread of COVID-19 reminds him of the H1N1 flu strain, also known as swine flu, which was prevalent from 2009 to 2010.

“It was a respiratory infection, and there was a lot of unknowns when it first started,” he said.

COVID-19 belongs to the large Coronavirus family, which includes the SARS and MERS strains that have also been problems worldwide. Symptoms include fever, coughing and trouble breathing.

According to the CDC, around 80 percent of cases of the virus have been mild, but the remaining 20 percent has killed people. In more serious cases, patients may develop severe respiratory failure and need ventilator support.

“They do tend to be older or have some other constellation of medical syndromes,” Love said.

Preventative measures

The CDC and other U.S. health departments and organizations have issued multiple statements about preventative measures. These include washing hands, coughing and sneezing into elbows, and contacting medical help if the person has been overseas and is experiencing symptoms or believes they were exposed.

“This is the kind of thing where someone might still go to work. This is where someone might go to the grocery store or school or something like that,” Love said. “Just because you have a mild infection doesn't mean you're not contagious.”

Love said it's also important for people call ahead instead of going directly to a doctor's office.

“Make the phone call first because you can't spread anything via the phone,” Love said.