Unemployment drop may not be what it seems
New jobs data shows low unemployment rates in Butler County and a painful season for retail businesses.
Pennsylvania's Department of Labor and Industry's Center for Workforce Information and Analysis is nearing the end of its final review of 2018 unemployment data. The center did not release figures in February and instead collected extra January data for use as an annual benchmark, according to analyst Lauren Riegel. Data released Tuesday detailed those January figures, but the center has not yet taken a deeper dive into the year's figure for its final historical record.
This is why, Riegel explained, Butler County deceptively appears to have significantly less unemployment in January than it did in December. The December unemployment estimate for Butler County was 3.9 percent, but the center is logging a January benchmark of 3.4 percent.
“We have 60 of 67 counties showing a drop of four-tenths or more,” Riegel explained. “So, that appears pretty significant, but December levels aren't updated yet.”
There's a reason why analysts like Riegel think unemployment rates may not have plummeted in January: Every major industry category suffered job losses from December to January. Much of that is seasonal, according to the center's report.
Retail, in particular, struggled. The seven-county Pittsburgh statistical area, which includes Butler County, hit a record low number of retail jobs dating back to when the center started collecting that data in 1990.
The seven counties hosted about 117,700 jobs in January. The previous record low was September 2018 at 119,700, according to Riegel. After the region's retail industry hired for the holiday season, employers dropped to even lower employment levels than before their seasonal hires.
Riegel said this decrease was consistent throughout the state.
