Trying not to go crazy over fluctuations
This can be a maddening time for investors.
You have money to invest so you do. Then the Dow Jones Industrial Average goes down 700 points over the next two days. Idiot.
Or you invest the money and the market goes UP 700 points over the next two days. Brilliant.
If you are not a serious long-term investor and realize that these things can happen it can drive you crazy.
My advice? Be prudent, buy quality and relax. In the past, doing this has paid off. Trying to be cute in this market is probably not a good idea.
At one time we were down more than 9 percent for the month of October. We had a rally and ended up down about 7 percent.
As I write this on Thursday, we are still positive for 2018, up almost 1.4 percent. Not much but hey, it’s positive.
Howie, what is going on and why has the market been going down?
The tech stocks which led and supported the market for the past several months have been taking it on the chin. It wasn’t unusual to see a loss in some of them in excess of 25 percent.
This does not surprise me at all. I’m surprised it took so long to happen. After the techs got bombed the weakness spread to the broad market so there was really nowhere to hide. It couldn’t get much better for some of those companies so what are they going to do to follow it up?
Howie, is it time to buy?
I agree with Warren Buffett. I don’t know when to buy stocks, I just know to buy them.
Historically for more than 100 years, if you bought the broad market and did not sell during times of weakness, it has been impossible to lose money in the market. The problem is that fear rears its ugly head and people sell.
That is one of the reasons people like me have a job. We hold hands.
To answer my opening question, historically if you buy quality and give it enough time you have been fine. I’ve said many times; money makes people very emotional. It is no fun watching it go out the door.
That’s why many people are not suited to be investors. They just emotionally cannot stand to watch the value of their portfolio go up and down.
I once knew a real estate investor. He could not stand to see his portfolio fluctuate in value. He could not see the value of his buildings every day but he sure could see his stocks. Could not take it.
I have an exercise for you. I can almost guarantee you that when you get the October statement, brokerage, 401(k), whatever, that your values are going to be down.
Here’s what you do. Most times you can see a comparison of values today versus a month ago. Take the month ago value and multiply it times 7 percent. If you lost less than that number than you did better than the market. It might not make you feel better but at least you will know.
This time of the year is normally a good time to get your portfolio where you want it. Generally, this is a period of “seasonal strength” until about April. Not always but most times.
It is also a good time to see where you are with taxes if your investments are taxable. Mutual funds may not declare capital gains until late December but at least you will have an idea.
I was talking to an investor some time back and I told him that he should make sure his account was diversified the way he wanted it. That way, you can make changes and bring it into line.
He said he was just going to leave it alone since it was doing well. I won’t tell you what I said to him. Especially now since the markets have been on a run and you likely have more money than you have ever had, make sure you understand the risk.
My spouse came cruising into the Man Cave the other day. She said, “Our new neighbor kisses his wife every day he goes to work, why don’t you do that?”
I said “How can I, I don’t even know her.” She didn’t think that was funny.
Howie Pentony is a Portersville client portfolio manager.
