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Rising price of crude adds to value of Marcellus plans

Rapid changes are looming in the realm of global energy markets, if we’re reading the tea leaves right. Here’s why:

In January, the petroleum marketing analyst ICIS predicted that prices for oil and other fuels would rise steadily this spring. The increase, when it hit a certain level, would accelerate the profitability of new polyethylene (PE) plants being built in the United States, including the $6 billion Shell Chemical ethane cracker plant under construction in Beaver County, according to ICIS. The target increase level will cause companies to spend less time in arriving at a decision to expand capacity. The trend will attract more foreign investment as well.

The target price at which all this would happen: around $70 a barrel — the price where crude prices arrived this week for the first time since 2014, Reuters reported Monday.

Reuters cited two circumstances behind the sudden rise in crude prices:

- A collapse of Venezuelan national oil production, brought about when Conoco Philips threatened to take possession of Caribbean assets of state-run PDVSA to enforce a $2 billion arbitration award, Reuters reported, citing sources.

- President Trump’s impending threat of sanctions against Iranian oil if a nuclear arms deal is canceled.

There’s an additional reason why the increase of oil prices is a big deal for the region’s manufacturers. They’ll get a competitive bargain. The ethane-based plastic feedstock that will be made by the cracker plant is cheaper to produce than the oil-based naphtha, the feedstock that most manufacturers in other parts of the world rely on.

As the ICIS report explains, “when oil prices rise, U.S. producers achieve a feedstock advantage.”

As if the plentiful resource of Marcellus Shale gas were not enough of a gift to Pennsylvanians, it seems as if the rising price of oil only increases its luster.

In coming weeks and months — particularly as we consider candidates for governor and other state level political posts — let’s not lose sight of the value of this resource to all Pennsylvanians.

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