Market years don't get much better than 2017
If it’s always more fun to write when the market has been good then I should be having a blast!
It does not get much better than 2017.
I use the numbers of performance that do not include dividends. I do that because it is much more realistic and gives us the dividends to use as expense.
None of us can manage our money without expenses so these numbers, in my view are much more honest.
In 2017, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 25.1 percent. The Standard and Poor’s 500 was up 19.4 percent.
The Dow contains only 30 stocks and the S & P contains 500, so I prefer the S & P as do most people who measure pensions and the like.
Whatever we use it was a roaring year.
The Nasdaq Composite was up 28.2 percent. Obviously this index contains the technology stocks which had a runaway year.
You will be surprised to see what some of the really hot stocks were. The tech stocks were up an average of 37 percent so as a group they did well. The FANG stocks did well. Facebook was up 53 percent, Amazon up 45 percent, Netflix up 55 percent, and Google up 33 percent.
A whole bunch of stocks did better than these. Some of them include Wynn Resorts up 94 percent, Boeing up 84 percent, Adobe up 70 percent, and Caterpillar up 68 percent.
Most people focused on the FANG stocks so when stocks like CAT and Boeing outperformed it surprised them.
Most people own stocks in mutual funds so perhaps you didn’t notice what individual stocks were doing.
Those of us who owned the individual stocks were happy campers because they could watch them all year. The small and mid-sized stocks usually lead the way in strong markets but not in 2017.
The Russell 2000 index of small stocks was up 13.1 percent and the S & P Midcap was up 14.5 percent. The smaller stocks usually win over the mid-caps but this year was also different.
I love watching this market.
As we headed to the election of Donald Trump dire warnings were going out.
No. 1 Hillary was going to crush him. The betters in Vegas were overwhelming for Hillary so the assumption was she was going to win.
The press and their polls were wrong. I just love that.
Then when the Donald won, the forecasters were warning of a market crash.
During 2017, there were all kinds of reasons to scare investors out of the market. North Korea kind of led the way. This maniac would scare anyone.
It seemed during the year there was always something to scare us. This market just sloughed off those concerns and plowed ahead. I love that.
Some investors ask me, “Howie, why is this market going up?”
That is an easy one to answer.
Historically markets do well when three situations are present. If interest rates are low or falling, if inflation is under control, and if corporate profits are expanding.
It’s hard to argue that we don’t see all of these things.
Rates are historically low, our government talks about 2 percent inflations and most companies are reporting higher profits.
Many business owners tell me that they are more confident now because of the pro-business attitude of Trump versus the anti-business and regulations-filled Obama reign.
Business owners and big business were afraid if they did anything, they were going to be slapped with new regulations and so they just didn’t do anything.
I voted for Trump. I must admit that I think some of the stuff he is doing is something I just would not do. I don’t like everything he does but I think he loves America and so I am willing to give him a break, as least to this point.
In looking at commodities, gold ended up over 13 percent, crude oil was up over 12 percent, natural gas continues to get pounded down over 20 percent.
Overall commodities, as measured by the DJ Commodity index, were up about 10 percent. That is a big number but if you are an investor you probably kept ahead of it.
Hey, the big reason that I love this market is that even if your portfolio was up only 10 percent you increased your net worth by 10 percent. This is very cool.
I was basking in the Man Cave the other day when the wife ventured in.
She wanted to know what I was doing. I told her that I had just talked with my friend Louie. She rolled her eyes and asked me what he had to say.
He told me that he had just been asked by his wife whether he thought Google was male or female. He told her that Google was definitely female because it never let you finish a sentence with making a suggestion.
She doesn’t think we are funny.
Howie Pentony is a Portersville client portfolio manager.
