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Revenge of Main Street

Wall Street struggles, but consumers buy

NEW YORK — Wall Street is hurting, and Main Street doesn't care. It's got burgers and cars to buy.

Big losses in stock markets this year have the wingtip-set fretting, but regular consumers across the United States are confident enough to open their wallets and spend more. It's an about-face from the early years of the economic recovery, which began in 2009, when stocks and big banks were soaring but many on Main Street felt like they were getting left behind.

“It's almost like a stock market is a different animal,” says Earl Stewart, who owns a Toyota dealership in North Palm Beach, Florida. “We're not seeing any of the negativity.” The stock market's malaise hasn't affected his customers, at least not yet. Sales for the past year have been the best since 2007, and he had record profits in 2015.

The divergence underway between Main Street and Wall Street highlights the difference between the U.S. stock market and the economy. The stock market's worries are centered on things like the strength of foreign economies, such as how much China's sharp slowdown will hurt exporters and businesses in other countries. Low oil prices are crushing the shares of energy companies and the big banks that lend to them — but leaving consumers with more money to spend due to cheap gas.

These forces have dragged the Standard & Poor's 500 index down 12.5 percent from its peak in May. Foreign stocks have lost double that. Hedge funds, which cater to the wealthiest and biggest investors, are also struggling. They lost money in January and got off to their worst start of a year since 2008, according to Hedge Fund Research.

Economists say the split trends between Main Street and Wall Street can continue, but only up to a point. If profits fall sharply enough, for example, it could push CEOs to once again cut swaths of jobs in order to shore up their earnings. If stock prices fall deep enough, the panic in the headlines could traumatize consumers whether or not they have a 401(k), and spending could slow.

For now, though, Main Street continues to trend upward. Only 13 percent of the U.S. economy depends on exports, and the rest of it — which is mostly consumer spending — is still growing, albeit slowly.

“Down here, as a small business owner, you don't feel connected to Wall Street at all,” says Jon Sears, a co-owner of four bars and restaurants in Columbia, S.C. “When I talk to people in Columbia, I can't think of a conversation I've had about the stock market in the past two or three weeks.”

His business depends instead on the nearby University of South Carolina. Revenue growth at his locations has held at his cheapest bar and his more upscale restaurant that serves local, organic foods.

Retailers around the country are seeing something similar. Shoppers bought more autos, clothes and other items last month, even though the S&P 500 in that span had its worst week in more than four years.

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