Stock market following trend from 2014
Same old, same old. Last year, we had a bad January, and we followed it up with another one this year.
Last year, we came storming back to finish nicely, so we’ll just have to wait and see.
There are still a lot of bears around, people who do not like this market, but they were around last year. There is one thing for sure: If you keep a negative view, or a positive for that matter, eventually you will be right.
Will this be the year that the market corrects? Who knows? I try not to waste my time trying to figure out what the market is going to do. I really don’t care. There is nothing we can do about it.
Why not just do as investors I know do — build yourself a portfolio that is as all weather as you can get it. A portfolio that meets your risk parameters whether markets go up or down.
Quit being afraid and do your asset allocation or find someone to do it for you.
When markets go down, everyone loses money, including me. I think I am a pretty smart guy but even I cannot avoid losses all the time. I tell people this all the time: know what you own, No. 1, and No. 2, understand that markets go down so if you can’t take that, then you cannot be an investor.
There are people out there who cannot be investors. You may be one of them.
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OK, back to January. Generally, we can say a 3 percent loss. Some indexes were worse, some better, but 3 percent is a good number I think.
Financials basically got buried falling almost 7 percent. Energy did better than financials, falling around 4.5 percent.
Two areas did well, health care and utilities. That trend continues.
Across the foreign markets, Canada, Brazil, Mexico and Spain were all down about 5 percent. Europe looked a little better as Germany and France were both positive. Asia looked up as Japan, India and Hong Kong were up around 2 percent.
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Looking at commodities, oil was down more than 12 percent, natural gas was down more than 7 percent. How does that happen with all the cold weather you ask yourself?
In precious metals, both silver and gold were up almost 10 percent in January. This all looks crazy doesn’t it?
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How about interest rates? Almost no one is looking for rates to fall. Most are looking for rates to go up. Wrong.
Treasuries just keep going up in price and down in yield.
This is where I would like to point out again that no one knows what is going to happen.
I like smart people. I pay attention to them. You know what? None of them know what is going on. You can make guesses but that’s it.
As I said, the market, meaning the S&P 500 index of large companies, was down about 3 percent for the month. Middle sized companies were down around 1 percent while small stocks were down more than 3 percent. Surprisingly, again no expectations, the Emerging Markets, generally small volatile countries, held right in there about even.
This is a perfect example of how you just can’t call the shots. Stay with quality, do your asset allocation according to how much risk you want to take and relax.
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I do have a couple of reminders for you.
If you are older than 50, you can put up to $24,000 in your 401K this year. Individual Retirement accounts, IRAs, $5,500 unless you are older than 50, then it is $6,500.
These are a couple of the few tax breaks that you and I can take advantage of these days.
There are other retirement account opportunities, particularly if you own a business, but you need to consult your tax adviser for those options. Small business has a lot of choices, and you should take advantage of it.
If you have recently lost a spouse or were involved in a divorce, make sure that your life insurance policies and your beneficiary for your retirement accounts have been changed to reflect what you want. I could tell you horror stories about how ex-spouses ended up with life insurance and pension accounts that they should not have gotten. Think about that situation.
In today’s society where it is not unusual for both spouses to work make sure you have looked at that.
Also, make sure that your will reflects whatever changes you want.
Again, divorce or death of a spouse, get your will out and make the changes.
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The wife came into the man cave the other day while I was working on a Mensa project and asked what I was doing. I told her I was thinking about the difference between men and women.
She said, “And that would be?”
I said “Mainly it is that when men drink they don’t remember anything. When women drink they remember everything!”
She doesn’t think I’m funny.
Howie Pentony is a Saxonburg portfolio manager.
