Contrary to conventional wisdom that U.S. manufacturing is on its deathbed, a recent study finds that domestic manufacturing has grown and become more competitive with factories in China, Brazil and other countries.

The shale gas boom in the United States has played a role in the shift by slowing increases in energy costs. Another, less well known, factor is rising wages in China. The study, conducted by the Boston Consulting Group and released last week, found that labor costs over the past decade have risen 187 percent (adjusted for productivity gains) in China, compared to a 27 percent increase in U.S. factories.

The trends, if they continue, support continued manufacturing growth in the United States. The study found in 2004, manufacturing costs in China were about 14 percent lower than in the United States. Now, that gap has closed to about 5 percent. The study predicts that by 2018, manufacturing in the U.S. will be less expensive than in China.

When compared to Brazil, the U.S. has done even better. In 2004, manufacturing in Brazil was about 3 percent cheaper than in the U.S. But now, it’s 23 percent more expensive to produce goods in Brazil because that country has not seen productivity gains to offset rising labor and energy costs.

While this report is good news, it also should be remembered when the natural gas industry or members of Congress talk about expanding gas exports.

The recent crisis in Ukraine has renewed calls for ramping up exports of natural gas from the U.S. to reduce the leverage that Russia has as the main energy supplier to Ukraine.

On the surface, it’s an appealing argument. But when looked at more closely, expanded exports is a harder case to make.

When it comes to the Ukraine-Russia crisis, it’s important to note that only one U.S. export terminal is under construction and even that one will not be functional until the summer of 2015. Another six export terminals approved by federal officials will not be operating until 2016 or 2017.

Apart from the problem of timing to help Ukraine, there are domestic economics consider. Expanding natural gas exports — as liquified natural gas — will benefit gas drillers, but possibly harm U.S. manufacturers while also hitting Americans who use natural gas to heat their homes.

The BCG study showed that the spike in domestic natural gas production made possible by hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling helped revive U.S. manufacturing and create jobs. The long-term trend of lower energy prices in the United States suggests it could fuel something of a rebirth of U.S. manufacturing. And a dramatic increase in natural gas exports threatens that because of basic laws of supply and demand. Increased demand created by higher natural gas exports will cause prices for natural gas to increase in the U.S.

In fact, the efforts by gas producers to win approval for significantly higher gas exports are being opposed by large U.S. manufacturers, including Dow Chemical.

Increased natural gas exports bring up environmental concerns, too. Dramatically expanded exports of LNG will increase drilling, pipeline transit and handling of natural gas, all of which will lead to more leaks, including methane a powerful contributor to greenhouse gases.

As technology improves, the gas industry should be able to reduce leaks. But that will take time and investment. A rush to expand gas production for export will put safety and efficiency efforts to minimize leaks on the back burner.

Overall, as the BCG study found, the current energy boom is helping boost U.S. manufacturing. A dramatic increase in exports would benefit drillers and processors, but come at a cost to manufacturing and the wider economy. The net effect of the broad benefits of lower energy costs should outweigh the interests of the gas industry pushing for a big jump in exports.