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Butler County's great daily newspaper

Great year for stocks is great for investors

Well here we are, the last month of 2013. At the beginning of the year if you had told me that the Wilshire 5000, an index of most stocks traded, would be up more than 29 percent at this point, I would have wondered what planet you were coming from.

I’m writing this on Thursday. The Dow Jones industrial average is up more than 24 percent, the Standard and Poor’s 500 is up more than 28 percent, the Nasdaq Composite is up almost 34 percent, the Russell 2000 index of small stocks is up almost 34 percent and the S & P Midcap index is up almost 29 percent.

Bonds were generally down, let’s call it 2 percent, and the foreign markets were up around 16 percent on average.

Most investors were not up 29 percent I would guess due to asset allocation, but one way or the other you likely made some money. I like making money.

December historically over the past 20 to 50 years has returned about 1.5 percent, so if that holds true, we could have just a great year. I also like great years.

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The commodity markets have generally been kind to us. Cattle prices are up about 2 percent, but corn is down a whopping 39 percent so far.

However, corn is relative. I remember not too far back when I was paying a buck and a half for corn, and now its $4 give or take. Corn has just corrected from very high prices.

Soybeans are also down about 6 percent for the year. Wheat is off 16 percent, so some of the stuff we eat should be cheaper at least for now.

Gold is down 25 percent, and silver is off 34 percent.

There has been almost no place to hide in commodities.

Natural gas is up 18 percent, and oil is up about 6 percent. Coffee has been fairly stable after a sharp drop early this year. I’ve been staying awake at night worrying about it.

Sugar is right at its low, and cocoa is up. Orange juice went through a huge increase in November. Hogs are lower for the year.

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Prepare yourself to pay taxes. If you own stock mutual funds, many will be paying capital gains. Most of them will hit in December so you probably won’t know about them unless your adviser tells you.

This is not necessarily a bad thing. Capital gains at the current tax rates are a bargain in my view.

Folks, taxes are going up. Capital gains, dividends and interest are easy targets so get ready for increases there. I don’t know if the increases start next year, but I think they are right around the corner.

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The next thing on the investment front is the midterm elections.

It appears that a lot of congressmen and women are running a little scared. Depending on your persuasion, some of us are upset at the Republicans for that little “shut down the government trick,” and some are upset at Democrats for the ObamaCare debacle.

I have no clue how this thing washes out, but I do know it will be fun to watch the politicians blaming each other.

Markets tend to just continue to do what they are doing throughout it all. People tend to view the current administration as anti-business but the markets have just sloughed that aside and here we are having a great year.

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On a personal note I just want to thank you for reading my scribbles. I think I have been writing this thing for more than 15 years, and people are still buying the paper.

I hope that you and yours have a merry Christmas and happy holidays and the coming year is filled with good health and prosperity.

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The wife came into the Man Cave the other day to find me laughing. She asked me what was so funny.

I told her that I was reading a story about the guy who went into a bar and had several drinks while looking down in the dumps. The bartender asked him why he looked so sad.

He said, “Well my wife and I had an argument, and she said she was not going to talk to me for a month.”

“So,” said the bartender.

“Well,” said the guy, “tonight marks the end of the month.”

You know she doesn’t think I’m funny.

Howie Pentony is a Saxonburg client portfolio manager.

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